Louisville football is just under a month away from its season opener at home against Eastern Kentucky on August 30. As kickoff approaches, the Cardinal fans are hoping to build on the success of last season.
Currently, Louisville holds the third-best odds to win the ACC, trailing only Clemson and Miami, and head coach Jeff Brohm has had a strong start in his first two seasons at the helm. He led the Cardinals to the ACC Championship Game in year one and posted a 9–4 record last year — a season highlighted by a road win at Clemson.
Now, Brohm is aiming to return to the ACC title game and possibly push for the program’s first-ever College Football Playoff appearance. Achieving that goal would require meaningful improvement across the board.
3 stats that prove Louisville football will be even better in 2025
Looking ahead to 2025, Louisville is in a position to control its destiny if it can capitalize on key opportunities and tighten up in a few areas. From one-score games to defensive lapses and a lopsided rushing attack, here are three stats the Cardinals are poised to improve this season.
3. Record in One-Score Games
Louisville went 2–4 in one-score games during the 2024 regular season, including a 2–3 mark in ACC play. All three conference losses came by seven points or fewer, which was a big drop-off from 2023, when the Cardinals went 4–1 in one-score games.
The massive swing was most likely what cost them their chance to return to the ACC title game. Coach Brohm has historically fared well in tight contests. Including the 2023 season at Louisville, he’s had a winning record in one-score games over the past three years.
At Purdue in 2022, he went 5–2 (4–1 in Big Ten play), and in 2021, he went 2–1. According to CBS Sports, the ACC has had the fewest blowout games (decided by 17+ points) in the College Football Playoff era (since 2014, excluding 2020).
That makes close-game success even more critical in this conference. If Louisville had gone .500 in one-score games last year, it likely would’ve reached the ACC Championship instead of Clemson. Fixing this stat could give the Cards a significant edge in 2025.
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2. Defensive Points Allowed Per Game
Louisville’s defense in 2024 was, at best, inconsistent. There were strong performances — like the wins over Clemson and Pitt — but also poor showings against teams like Stanford and Miami.
The Cardinals allowed 24 points per game in 2024, which was over three points worse than in 2023 (21 ppg), and five points worse than in 2021 (19 ppg). That increase made a tangible difference in the standings. In 2023, Louisville was consistent on defense, allowing 21 points per game both in and out of conference.
In 2024, however, they allowed 24 points per game in non-conference play and 27 points per game in ACC games. That level of scoring defense makes it challenging to win consistently — especially in a conference as competitive as the ACC. For Louisville to contend again, they’ll need to get that number back down, ideally closer to the 20 ppg mark. If the defense can improve in this area, the Cardinals will be in a much better position to compete for a title.
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1. Balanced Run Game
From 2021 to 2023, Brohm’s offenses consistently featured at least two players with 90+ rushing attempts. But in 2024, that balance disappeared. Isaac Brown carried the load with 165 attempts — more than double that of the next closest back, Duke Watson (67 attempts).
Keyjuan Brown had just 47 carries. That’s not typical for a Brohm-led offense, and it’s not ideal for long-term success. Due to both breakout performances and injuries in 2024, Isaac Brown became not just the top option — he was the only consistent option. Despite the heavy workload, Brown thrived, averaging 7.1 yards per carry and eclipsing 1,100 rushing yards.
In 2025, expect Brown to remain a central figure — but with fewer touches. A more balanced approach featuring Brown, Keyjuan Brown, and Duke Watson would benefit the team. If all three stay healthy, Brohm would prefer a "running back by committee" strategy, keeping legs fresh throughout the season.
That balance would also open things up for new transfer QB Miller Moss, who could stretch the field more effectively if defenses have to respect the ground game.
Will they do it?
Louisville has a real shot to take the next step in 2025, but it will come down to execution in close games, improved defensive consistency, and a more diversified run game. If those three areas take a leap, the Cardinals could find themselves right back in the ACC title conversation — and maybe, for the first time ever, in the CFP mix.