Louisville Basketball: Predicting the Top 3 Leading Scorers in 2018-19

2. V.J. King

I’ve said it several times already this offseason, but in case you missed it I’ll say it again. No player will benefit more from the hiring of Chris Mack than V.J. King.

We all know King was one of the most hyped recruits to land with Louisville in the last decade, and high expectations were placed on him; deservedly so. But after two up and down seasons, with a lot more downs than ups, King will head into his junior year with no choice but to perform up to his talent level, or be labeled as one of the biggest disappointments in Cardinal basketball history.

That’s a lot to put on a 20 year old kid, but with the confidence building skills and coaching abilities of Chris Mack and his staff, I don’t believe this should be a problem. When I look at wings that Coach Mack has had the opportunity to develop over the past several years such as, Trevon Blueitt, Remy Abell, J.P. Macura, Jordan Crawford, Justin Martin, and Dez Wells, I wouldn’t consider one of them to be vastly superior talent to King. All of those players have been double digit scorers in their career, and helped lead Xavier to success, and I expect the same out of King, regardless of his first two years.

We’ve seen the scoring ability in small glimpses from V.J. King. Think back to the Virginia game in 2016-17, when as a freshman King lit up one of the best defenses in the entire country. We know it’s there, but thus far horrid shot selection, an inability to finish at the rim, and confidence have been King’s achilles heel.

King showed an improvement from year one to two, going from 7 double-digit performances (under Pitino I might add, who kept King on the bench because of bad defense) to 14, including 5 games over 15 in 2017-18 compared to just two in 16-17. King’s shooting percentages did go down both from the field, and from three in year two, but keep in mind he attempted nearly 2x as many shots as a sophomore.

As a junior a big focus for King will be knowing what is a good shot and what is not a good shot, something that Chris Mack talked about on multiple occasions during a June local radio car wash tour. Getting bigger and stronger, something Mack has also emphasized, along with growing in confidence as a player should be huge additions to King’s game and the biggest reason I think he will take a huge step forward as a junior.

When looking at his sophomore shot chart you can clearly see King was not aware of what was a good shot. Here’s the breakdown according to The Stepien

Left Wing 3’s: 3/8 – 37%

Right Wing 3’s: 4/16 – 25%

Top of the Key 3’s: 16/49 – 32%

At the Rim: 44/83 – 53%

Short Mid-Range: 9/27 – 33%

Long Mid-Range: 27/76 – 35%

NBA 3’s: 11/42 – 26%

There’s really not a spot you can point to last season and say “King’s good from there,” but this data doesn’t tell the whole story. When you look at King’s % of field goals made unassisted you see that the majority of his shots came off his own dribble, and if you think back it’s easy to connect the dots. Louisville struggled with spacing under David Padgett, and also really had no true identity. The ball often times was forced into one guys hands, and left for him to make a play on his own.

King struggled in the area that a wing should excel in and that’s in the mid range. In the short mid-range, where he shot 33%, his unassisted % was 90.08% (meaning 90% of the time King’s buckets there were likely pull ups, or stop and pops) while the long mid-range, where he shot 35%, his unassisted was 86.34%. Mack’s system relies on spacing in the 4 in 1 out, and requires wings and guards to be able to beat their guy off the dribble. Unlike Adel, King showed his ability to handle the ball and get to good spots, however, he often made terrible decisions when he got there (his pump fakes were BAD).

With Mack on board, I expect him to force King to be a shooter from the areas where he had success last year while utilizing his offensive game plan in a way that will benefit King’s abilities.

King will have to improve at the rim, where he was just 53%, but Xavier wings J.P. Macura and Trevon Blueitt were 60% and 62% respectively. Then King will need to become better in both short and long mid-range, especially in the short where he only took 27 shots last season compared to 76 in the long. Then finally, he’ll need to improve in the corners and top of the key from deep, an area where he will find himself in the new offense.

As Presley Meyer pointed out, Mack’s style is physical and brash, creating space for their offensive players. With King’s ability to attack off the dribble, combined with a new instilled confidence and understanding of good shots, King should improve from an average 8.6 points per game to more of a 14.5 to 15 points per game. I think he gets it done this season.

Points per game prediction: 14.0