Louisville football: The spread is huge, but Clemson is still a safe bet

Louisville football is the biggest FBS underdog of the season, but even this enormous line is still likely not enough.

There are some serious problems within the Louisville football program. It seems inevitable that eventually something is going to come out explaining exactly what went wrong with this season.

A lot of things have gone wrong, and a lot of seasons have turned south for the Cards in the past. But going from being favored at No. 5 Clemson in Death Valley for a night game just two years ago to where they are now, is mind boggling. That kind of tanking doesn’t just happen because of the loss of a Lamar Jackson.

Something is broken in the Louisville football locker room. It is more than just one player or coach- it is a failure of a system. And the root of the cause will come out one way or another.

Until that time, Louisville still has to play that Clemson team this season. And as shockingly bad as Louisville is, Clemson is equally as good.

Tuesday morning spread check: Clemson -39 1/2

The craziest thing about this spread- which made Louisville the largest opening line dog since 1987– is that when it came out it turned heads. And not in a way where people thought it was outrageously large. No, people immediately thought the over for Clemson -37 was easy money. Since the opening line came out, most of the money is still going to Clemson. And the numbers would indicate that it should be.

In 2018, Clemson is 4-4 against the spread, but consider that some of the games that they didn’t cover were a 50 point spread in the opener amidst a quarterback controversy, and again when their stud QB, Trevor Lawrence, was knocked out of the game against a quality Syracuse team.

Louisville is 1-7 against the spread this season, with their lone win ATS being as a five point home underdog to Florida State in a game that they ultimately lost by four. That’s right- Louisville is one missed Florida State field goal away from being 0-8 against the spread on the season.

When asked about his thoughts on the opening spread against Clemson, Bobby Petrino gave the answer that you might expect from a coach. Saying:

"“I don’t know anything about any lines, but I know when you put the video on and you watch them play, it’s a great challenge.”"

I am never one to pile on. Whatever Louisville has going on in their program, they are still all valued and respected human beings at the end of the day. Things will eventually get better for this Cardinals football program. But nothing that you have seen on the field so far this year indicates that Clemson won’t be able to name their score against the Cards.

Clemson was a 20.5 point favorite at Wake Forest, and they won 63-3 in a game where they could have scored way more than that. Louisville was a 3 point favorite against the same Wake Forest team and took a home loss 56-35.

Nothing would indicate that Louisville can hold Clemson under 40 points, or that they can move the ball with any sort of consistency against a sound Clemson defense. Never bet the house on a 40 point favorite, but it is hard to believe that even six touchdowns is enough of a cushion for Clemson against Louisville on Saturday.