Forecast models are all the rage in the college basketball world these days. Come along as I update weekly where the Cards stack up in the KenPom ratings and see how Louisville develops even more of an identity statistically.
What are the KenPom Rankings? Why do they matter? Should Louisville basketball fans care? Well, to each their own but when it comes to college basketball and getting a firm understanding of your team and their ranking compared to others, KenPom tells an important story.
As explained by Ken Pomeroy himself, “The purpose of this system is to show how strong a team would be if it played tonight, independent of injuries or emotional factors. Since nobody can see every team play all (or even most) of their games, this system is designed to give you a snapshot of a team’s current level of play.”
KenPom changes daily and with more games and statistics has a more full picture of each team and their potential.
Lets take a closer look at the current ranking for Louisville and what it means in the national landscape.
Louisville Basketball Overall Team Rating: 37
The Cardinals currently sit 37th in the overall ratings. For perspective, Louisville began the season ranked 63rd and rose quickly up the rankings after close losses to Tennessee and Marquette and a huge victory over Michigan State. Look for the Cards to continue to rise up the ratings with continued high-quality play over tough opponents.
ACC Ranking: 8
The Cards position in the overall ratings places them as the eighth best team in the ACC. Louisville stares up at #1 Duke, #2 Virginia, #5 UNC, #10 Virginia Tech, #16 FSU, #19 NC State and #34 Syracuse. Wins against these teams (and others ranked closely behind) in conference play will launch the Cards into the top-30 and beyond.
Offense Adjusted Efficiency: 28
KenPom calculates each team’s “Offensive Adjusted Efficiency” using four factors: Effective Field Goal %, Turnover %, Offensive Rebound %, and Free Throws Attempted/Field Goals Attempted.
Defense Adjusted Efficiency: 58
KenPom calculates each team’s “Defensive Adjusted Efficiency” using the same four factors (as mentioned above) of the team’s opponent.
Next Projected Result: W over Robert Morris
Louisville 78-Robert Morris 57 with 97% Confidence in a Cards win.
KenPom loves the Cardinals chances against a Robert Morris side rated as 298th by the same metrics. With six days to prepare and Mack sure to have the boys focused ahead of UK, I expect the margin to be right around twenty too.
Overall Projected Record: 18-13 (9-9 ACC)
Louisville sits at 8-3 with two non-conference games left (Robert Morris and Kentucky) before their brutal ACC schedule comes knocking. Simple KenPom math has the Cards going 10-10 in their final 20 games. Oddly enough the current projected record is exactly what I tabbed the Cards for in the preseason roundtable. Will be interesting to see how this projection fluctuates based on the next few games, and specifically when the ‘Cats come to town in nine days.
Next week we’ll check in on the Cards’ rating post-Robert Morris and look ahead to KenPom’s take on the Battle for the Bluegrass.