KenPom’s take on the Battle for the Bluegrass

The battle between Louisville and Kentucky always comes down to doing the little things well. We take a look at what stats are most important for both squads.

Tomorrow at 2:05 pm ET Chris Mack will lead his Cards into his first battle with enemies from Lexington. His coaching skills will be on full display as his squad battles the #16 ranked Wildcats. ESPN FPI shows 55% confidence in a Louisville win, but what does the KenPom ratings have to say about the Cards chances?

Louisville’s Overall Rating: 38

As a refresher from last week’s introductory KenPom update, as Ken Pomeroy himself explains, “The first thing you should know about this system is that it is designed to be purely predictive. If you’re looking for a system that rates teams on how “good” their season has been, you’ve come to the wrong place.” All that to say KenPom’s rating currently peg Louisville as the predicted 38th best team in the country. This is one spot lower than the Cards sat before their home game against Robert Morris on Friday. The Cards “fell” to 38 after a strange and gritty win in the YUM! The Cards will continue to improve and so will their schedule. Expect the Cards to be knocking on the doors of the top-30 soon.

ACC Ranking: 9

Last week the Cards came in as the eighth best team in the ACC based on the overall ratings and since then Clemson has moved to just one spot ahead of Louisville. The usual ACC suspects continue to be rated ahead of the Cardinals: Duke, Virginia and North Carolina. Four others follow closely behind: VT (9), FSU (16), NC State (20), Syracuse (34), and Clemson (38). A win over Kentucky (15) would give the Cards great momentum heading into their rugged ACC slate which abounds with chances to boost their tournament résumé and climb up the ratings.

Offense Adjusted Efficiency: 30

KenPom calculates each team’s “Offensive Adjusted Efficiency” using four factors: Effective Field Goal %, Turnover %, Offensive Rebound %, and Free Throws Attempted/Field Goals Attempted.

Louisville shot 48.9% from the floor against Robert Morris which is slightly lower than the Cards’ Effective FG% of 53.1%., but stuck to how they’ve been efficient thus far this season offensively by consistently getting to the stripe. The main issue for the Cards offensively against the Colonials was 16 turnovers. The Cards made 22-27 from the foul line. Louisville fell two spots after the Robert Morris game (other teams’ perfomance always impacts ratings too). The Cards must be effective in the lane, get to the stripe consistently, limit turnovers, and knock down open threes when they’re available to beat Kentucky.

Defense Adjusted Efficiency: 57

KenPom calculates each team’s “Defensive Adjusted Efficiency” using the same four factors (as mentioned above) of the team’s opponent.

The Louisville defense played well against Robert Morris holding them to just 59 points, creating 10 turnovers, and holding the Colonials to just 38% shooting. The Cards also dominated the glass including a 31-16 edge on the defensive end. After a great performance the Cards moved up one spot in the defensive ratings. The Cards must keep the ‘Cats out of the paint, force contested jump shots, compete on the backboards, and force turnovers to upend UK.

Next Projected Result: L to Kentucky

Kentucky 74-73 with 48% confidence in a Louisville loss.

After Kentucky’s big win over North Carolina in Chicago on Saturday, the Wildcats moved up to 15 in the ratings and are now favored to beat the Cardinals in the big YUM! KenPom truly sees this game as a tossup as it only puts 52% confidence in a UK win. All stats point to a great battle between fierce rivals and a fight to the finish. Buckle up Cardnation.

Overall Projected Record: 18-13 (9-9 ACC)

The Louisville Record projection stays the same although before the UK-UNC game Louisville was favored over the ‘Cats. As a reminder: “Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the sum of individual game predictions.”

KenPom’s Keys for Kentucky-Louisville:

The KenPom 15th rated ‘Cats have the upper hand offensively (13th), while the Cards’ defense rates 3 spots above the ‘Cats (30 and 33 respectively). Kentucky shoots a blistering 55% from the field but is more than turnover prone and holds a Turnover percentage of 20. When the Cards are on offense they will look to rely on their ability to get to the stripe. The Cards continue to be the best team in the country at drawing and converting free throws.

Overall Statistical Keys:

Louisville will win if they keep Kentucky out of the lane and force them into contested jump shots which will lead to “kills” (3 consecutive scoreless possessions). Pair that with the offense’s ability to get to the foul line and take and hit good looks from deep and we have ourselves a winning formula. If this one becomes a track meet–look for the ‘Cats to take it.

Kentucky will win if they force Louisville into consistent contested jump shots and keep Louisville from getting to the foul line. Getting UofL’s big men in early foul trouble will be a focus of Calipari’s game plan and the deeper Chris Mack has to go in his bench, the more likely UK will be in control. An uptempo game suits the ‘Cats and they’ll be more than willing to make this one a high scoring affair (see: UNC game).