Louisville basketball: Cards fly up KenPom ratings after big week

After two big wins Louisville basketball has flown up the KenPom ratings.

Since previewing the Kentucky matchup (and following the loss to the ‘Cats) Louisville basketball has rebounded with a 4-1 start in the ACC including a signature beat down of the North Carolina Tar Heels in the Dean Dome nine days ago. The Cards have backed up this signature win with a gritty win over Boston College and a thrashing of Georgia Tech on Saturday.

While the Cards dropped a game (before spanking Carolina) against a scrappy and young bunch of Pitt Panthers, the Cardinals have responded loudly with improved play on both ends. Louisville now finds their place at 11 (!) in the NCAA’s new NET Rankings, 18 in the Sagarin Ratings, and have raced up to 16 in the KenPom ratings.

With a crucial ranked matchup at home tomorrow night and a daunting conference finishing slate, Louisville must continue to win in the new few weeks. A win over NC State and a revenge beatdown of Pittsburgh will further solidify the Cards as a legit contender in the best conference in the nation.

The Cards have quickly shifted from a bubble team to a team sitting firmly on the 5th-seed line according to the Bracket Matrix and look to firmly stamp their place in the Big Dance with continued success in league play.

Let’s examine the improvement the Cards have shown since the Kentucky game according to KenPom.

Overall Team Rating: 38 to 16

The Cards have flown up the ratings as they jumped out to a quick start in conference play starting 4-1 with wins over Miami, North Carolina, Boston College, and Georgia Tech. The Cards lone loss in their opening slate of ACC games came on the road to overachieving Pittsburgh. Better play on both ends of the court has propelled the Cards to a great start within the conference and caused their overall rating to jump over twenty-spots in just five games. Simply put, the quality of opponents has risen–and will continue to rise for the Cards–and so has the play of the boys in red and black.

ACC Ranking: 9 to 5

The Cards are now only rated behind Virginia (1), Duke (2), North Carolina (7), and Virginia Tech (11). After soundly beating the Tar Heels on the road two Saturdays ago, the Cards still play UNC at home, @ Virginia Tech, home against Duke, and twice against Virginia. A quick start in league play for the Cards has slingshotted them past fellow ACC foes and the Cards are projected in the top half of the league–not just now–but as league play unfolds in its entirety.

Offense Adjusted Efficiency: 30 to 13
KenPom calculates each team’s “Offensive Adjusted Efficiency” using four factors: Effective Field Goal %, Turnover %, Offensive Rebound %, and Free Throws Attempted/Field Goals Attempted

Jordan Nwora and Dwayne Sutton have taken the Louisville offense to new heights in conference play. Nwora has averaged 17 points in conference play and has scored at least 17 in each contest except for the Cards loss to Pittsburgh. Nwora has fully embraces his role as the primary scorer for the Cards while being nicely and consistently complemented by junkyard dog, Dwayne Sutton. Sutton has averaged 10 pts/8 rebs per ACC contest including three double-doubles in this five game slate. The Cards have found their identity offensively and have embraced working through the paint with bigs like Steven Enoch and Malik Williams and have seen–like in Chapel Hill–that efficiency inside the painted area leads to good deep looks for knockdown shooters like Nwora, Sutton, and McMahon. Louisville’s offense will only improve as Enoch continues to improve and Malik Williams learns to love living in the paint.

Defense Adjusted Efficiency: 57 to 45
KenPom calculates each team’s “Defensive Adjusted Efficiency” using the same four factors (as mentioned above) of the team’s opponent.

Louisville has begun to trust itself on the defensive end and is on a slow, but constant upward climb in the defensive ratings. The Cards are now holding opponents to 48% shooting (adjusted) and allow opponents to only grab 23% of offensive boards. Mack has not backed away from his new-to-Louisville pack-line defense and his team has begun to show why. While this style is much more protect-the-paint and force outside shots then the previous regime, Mack’s players continue to improve, learn the system, and grow in confidence on the defensive end.

Next Projected Results: W over (31) NC State, W over (66) Pittsburgh 

Louisville over NC State 81-75 with 71% confidence in a Cards win.

The newly (and finally once again) #23 ranked Cards welcome #21 NC State to the YUM! on Thursday night in another crucial early conference game. The Cards must continue to stockpile wins before heading into a nasty slate in February and early March. If the Cards can beat NC State then they will improve to 4-5 in Quadrant 1 games.

Louisville over Pittsburgh 75-64 with 83% confidence in a Cards win.

A few weeks ago the Panthers stunned the Cards in a fantastic early conference duel that ended in overtime. This loss ignited the flame that the Cards rode to a thrashing of UNC and two necessary wins since. Look for the Cards to be fully engaged, ready to go, and more than excited to get another swing at Jeff Capel’s scrappy bunch.

Overall Projected Record: 20-11 (11-7 ACC)

Before the Kentucky game Louisville was projected to finish 18-13 (9-9 ACC). Since a fast start in league play and improvement on both ends, the Cards are now projected to win two more conference games–NC State and North Carolina (again). Both crucial games are at home for the Cards and would be huge in bolstering Louisville’s Big Dance résumé.

Look for the Cards to continue to improve on both ends of the floor, continue to develop an identity offensively, and trust Mack’s defensive scheme. As Louisville’s confidence rises they will quickly secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament with more key victories–like NC State tomorrow night–and will be free to improve their seed line rather than sweat it out on the bubble.