Why Louisville basketball is the scariest team in the ACC
Louisville basketball is in first place in the ACC, and only appears to be getting better moving towards March.
Once again, the Atlantic Coast Conference is the best conference in college basketball. Duke is back as a powerhouse front-runner with a group of ridiculous freshmen. Virginia is wreaking havoc with their pack line defense, but also brings an extremely efficient offense to the table. North Carolina is dangerous, pairing young guards with a veteran forward in Luke May, and Virginia Tech is on pace for a record year under Buzz Williams… That’s just in the AP top 11. NC State, Florida State, and Syracuse are all tournament teams as well. The ACC is as deep as it’s ever been. Still, none of those teams may be as scary as Louisville basketball at this point.
Although Louisville is in it’s first year under head coach Chris Mack, the Cards have things rolling. And though Mack’s squad is an odd mixture of leftovers from the Rick Pitino era and graduate transfers, make no mistake: Nobody wants to play Louisville right now.
Louisville dropped some games early in the season that were right in their reach. However, of late, the Cards seem to have things figured out. So much so, that Louisville might have the pieces to make a deep tournament run. Here’s why, if you run into Louisville come March, they are going to be a tough out.
Veteran guard play
Louisville’s success starts with its guard play. Head coach Chris Mack was tasked with finding a replacement for Quentin Snider and Deng Adel, two veteran leaders from last season, and he found two gems in Christen Cunningham and Khwan Fore.
Cunningham is a natural leader, and it only took him but a few games to find his footing and gel with a hodge podge first year Mack team. Cunningham has caught fire since the start of conference play, averaging 13.1 points and 6.3 assists this calendar year. Cunningham has only been in Louisville for a year, but he is one of Louisville’s most important players. He can be called upon to make the right play when it is needed the most.
Fore is not the stat sheet stuffer that Cunningham is by a long-shot, but what he brings to the table is consistency. The fifth year senior out of Richmond is blazing fast and typically tasked with guarding the best opposing player. In Chris Mack’s system, it is imperative to keep the ball out of the lane, and Fore is a tenacious on-ball defender. He rarely shoots, but when he does, he scores with efficiency. His defense and leadership have always been there, and now he is growing into the Louisville offense.
Coach with great track record
The man behind the operation in his first year is Chris Mack. In 9 years at Xavier, Mack’s teams improved consistently over time, including a 13-loss squad that went to the Sweet 16 in 2012, a 14-loss team that went to the sweet 16 in 2015, and an 11th seeded 14-loss team that went to the Elite 8 in 2017. Last season, he guided one of his more experienced teams to a No.4 overall ranking, and a No.1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
In short, Mack knows how to get his teams playing their best basketball come March, and over time, with better recruiting and resources, has lead his squad to a number one overall seed. Mack knows how to do more with less than almost anyone in the country. It’s not that Louisville has “less” talent this season necessarily, but three wins over top 25 teams just halfway through the season with a hastily assembled team is a pretty remarkable feat.
Excellent team culture
Mack’s success is driven by the culture that he continues to implement daily. He inherited a PR nightmare in the post- Rick Pitino and Tom Jurich era. Mack was left with 7 scholarship players on the roster, all of whom signed up to play for Rick Pitino, and who fit better in his system.
Still, Mack made it clear from day one that this wasn’t Pitino boot camp. Gone with the barrage of treadmills in the team weight room, gone with the hours of sprints, gone with the obsession with perfect defenses, and ripping players and benching them for missing a small assignment. Gone were the days of social media bans, and micro-managing. All of these things made Rick Pitino a Hall of Fame coach, but Chris Mack knew that in 2018, there were simpler ways to do things. He brought a more light-hearted approach; One that 18-22 year olds could relate to. He brought youth, swagger, and a family-oriented culture. He brought back a focus on the student experience, and emphasized the importance of welcoming former players, coaches, media, and fans into practices and into his life.
The result? A complete change in team culture, and a huge increase in confidence. These Cards still pack their lunch pale, they still bring toughness, and ton of hustle. But these Cards bring a youthful exuberance that, aside from maybe Russ Smith and Peyton Siva, fans haven’t seen in a long time.
You can have all of the talent in the world, but few teams have meshed the way Louisville has this year.
Improving defense
There’s a common theme among national championship teams over the last two decades, and it looks like resident basketball nerd Ken Pomeroy has it figured out.
According to his rankings at KenPom.com, every national champion since 2003 has had an adjusted offense and adjusted defensive rating inside of the top 20 come March Madness. Ken Pom’s system projects how teams will perform and finish by the end of the season, and is not subjective as most computer rankings and polls are. He calculates for things like injuries, garbage time, and home vs. away.
Currently, Louisville is Ken Pom’s 13th ranked team in offensive efficiency. However, the Cards still sit at 44th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cards are a long-shot to win a title for sure, but things are looking up for their defense. Since the start of conference play, Louisville has moved from 57th in defensive efficiency to 44th.
Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, and Michigan State are currently the only four teams that would meet Ken Pom’s criteria for a national champion. But Kentucky, Tennessee, Michigan, Gonzaga, and, yes, Louisville are creeping on the doorstep.
As Louisville continues to get better contributions from Jordan Nwora on both ends of the court, and Khwan Fore sees more time for his excellent on-ball defense, look for Louisville to creep towards that top 20 mark. The Cards’s defense is on track to be ticking at an elite, and maybe even national championship level come postseason time.
Free throw shooting
Louisville’s free throw shooting is vastly improved under Chris Mack. One of the biggest weaknesses under Rick Pitino has become a strength for the Cards. At 75.7%, Louisville ranks 24th in country in free throw percentage. Make no mistake, this isn’t a fluke either. The Cards rank 22nd in the country in free throws attempted, and their best free throw shooter Ryan McMahon hasn’t even attempted enough to be ranked on an individual basis.
The bigs for the Cards have hardly any drop off percentage-wise from the ball handlers, meaning it is a moot point for the opponents to defend more aggressively against any one player. Even more so, Louisville its making free throws in the clutch. It is a huge asset in March to be able to salt away games late.
Some Cards still aren’t playing up to their potential
The Cards have turned it on in conference play, but there is so much room for improvement. There is a core five that have been steady game in and game out: Jordan Nwora, Christen Cunningham, Dwayne Sutton, and a combination of Malik Williams and Steven Enoch at the center position. Outside of that, Louisville has had a mixed bag of performances.
Darius Perry finished his Freshman season strong, but hasn’t been able to find his footing in Chris Mack’s system. With that said, Perry has it in him and we know he has the ability to get things turned around.
Much of the same can be said of VJ King. The former McDonald’s All-American is probably the best athlete on the team, brings above average defense, and hustles when he’s on the floor. On offense, however, he has been lacking what so many fans are desperately pulling for. His career has had flashes of brilliance, but King has never been able to put things together enough to stay on the floor.
Ryan McMahon is a revelation when he gets an open look from deep, but the concern is that he is a one trick pony. McMahon can be used situationally at the two guard for the Cards, and his ball handling and on-ball defense continue to improve.
Khwan Fore is really coming on strong since the beginning of the calendar year. Could there be a chance that Fore is the piece that catapults the Cards to the next level of success? He has made his way consistently into the starting lineup at the 2 guard, and seems to be gelling really well with his younger teammates. This is crucial for the Cards to make a deep run because he has been stepping up in key moments to bring a balanced attack alongside Christen Cunningham in the back court.
The Cards are playing well, but they have barely began to scratch the surface of their potential. For Louisville fans, that should excite you, and as for the rest of the country? Be scared. Very Scared.