Louisville basketball is one missing piece away from deep tournament run
Louisville basketball has all of the intangibles needed to be a championship caliber team, except for in this one area.
Under first-year head coach Chris Mack, Louisville basketball has taken a squad that was hastily assembled in the eleventh hour with only 10 scholarship players, and become one of the most electrifying teams in the country. Louisville has 4 wins over quadrant 1 teams, 3 of which are currently ranked in the AP top 11.
The Cards aren’t a team that anyone wants to face right now. But what makes Louisville’s resume just good, and not great, for now is their inability to close close games. The Cards had (currently) No. 1 Tennessee, No. 10 Marquette, No. 17 Florida State, and most recently (and most painfully), No. 2 Duke all on the ropes, but were unable to land a knock-out blow.
The Cards can play with anyone. They throttled No. 8 North Carolina on the road in their biggest home loss under Roy Williams, staved off No. 11 Michigan State, and led throughout against NC State and No. 22 Virginia Tech. Although they dropped close ones late at Indiana and at Pitt, they pulled through against quality Seton Hall and Lipscomb squads.
This led me to the following hypothesis:
If Louisville can learn how to handle pressure more effectively, they can beat anyone.
And even more so, if Louisville learns how to deal with late game pressure, both mentally, and from opposing defenses, the Cards have a real shot at making a run to the final four or, hell, winning the whole darn thing.
Don’t get me wrong, I know that there are a myriad of experienced, talented squads ahead of the Cards. The top 5 teams in the nation are as dominant as they have ever been. But the NCAA tournament is full of surprises, and when Louisville is at their best, they can compete with- and beat- anyone.
If you don’t believe me, look no further than their last match-up against Duke. Of course everyone will remember the unreal meltdown and almost unbelievable come back by the Blue Devils. However, prior to the final 10 minutes, Louisville was doing something no other team had done before this season: blow Duke out. The end result is ultimately what matters, but it took a series of 20+ mistakes from Louisville, including an unprecedented barrage of turnovers and missed free throws, Duke launching 30 footers like the 2016 Warriors, and Zion Williamson going full Monstars from Space Jam for Duke to walk away with the win.
Prior to the last 10 minutes, Louisville completely dismantled Duke. And until the last 4 minutes of the prior game, the Cards led handily over a solid Florida State squad. This common trend of late meltdowns doesn’t stop there. Boston College used a 14-0 and 16-2 run to narrow the gap against Louisville in the last 6 minutes of their contest in mid-January, and NC State used their press to force Louisville into 15 turnovers and keep what was otherwise a solid beat-down fairly respectable.
When teams press the Cards, they typically find success. Full and mid court pressure in late-game situations is the difference between Louisville being 17-8 and possibly 20-5 or better. It’s also the difference between UofL having 6 or 7 top 25 wins instead of just 4.
Louisville finds itself safely in the NCAA tournament for now, but the Cards have to find a solution to one final problem: Their ability to handle pressure and finish games.
The Cards’s primary ball handler, Christen Cunningham, has been a marvel in 2019. The graduate transfer point guard leads Louisville with poise and focus, and has dished out 82 assists in his last 11 games. But teams are figuring out that Cunningham and Louisville operate better with space. When long, athletic guards like Ashton Hagans of Kentucky or Duke’s Tre Jones get up under him, Louisville’s offense comes to a stand-still. When he is pressured in the full court, Cunningham remains steady, but he wears down as the game goes on. In the last 5 minutes, “CC” is forced to play through fatigue and be UofL’s only true point guard.
Cunningham needs help. The remaining teams on Louisville’s schedule simply have to watch the Florida State and Duke tape, and they will learn that when the Cards are pressured, they will wilt more often than not. They’d be stupid not to learn from the teams before them and apply the pressure.
Louisville needs a combination of Darius Perry, Khwan Fore, Ryan McMahon, and Jordan Nwora to make more plays with the ball in their hands. Teams are learning that if Cunningham has to do all of the work, Louisville is susceptible to pressure.
Outside of handling the press, the Cards have been incredibly consistent in all phases of the game. Now, they just have to figure out how to finish. This Cardinals team knows that they are good enough to get a huge lead on just about anyone; And that is saying quite a bit given their circumstances coming into the season.
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Should Mack’s squad be able to find a solution to handling the pressure physically and mentally, they will have cracked the final code for this season. If history is any indicator, Mack and this staff can get things turned in the right direction sooner rather than later. If and when they do, the sky is the limit for these Cards.