Louisville Basketball: 3 reasons the Cards are a Sweet 16 team

Ignore the recent late game struggles of Louisville Basketball against Duke and Clemson. It will not derail a possible Sweet 16 run in the NCAA tournament.

Louisville basketball has surpassed expectations as they were predicted to finish 11th in the ACC according to league media. They are currently 18th in the country according to the AP poll and tied for 4th in the ACC.  Many pundits predicted Louisville would be in the NIT but now Louisville could end up as far as the Sweet 16.

Looking towards postseason implication, Louisville can make a run towards the sweet 16. According to Joey “Brackets”, Louisville is projected to be a five seed in the Midwest bracket. Matchups are bound to change but as the bracket is currently constituted, that would match them up with Minnesota and then face the winner of Nevada versus Indiana or Oklahoma.

Louisville is currently sitting at 18-8 overall and 9-4 within the conference with impressive wins against North Carolina, Michigan State, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina State, who were all ranked. Louisville has competitive losses against legitimate National Championship contenders in Tennessee and Duke. They also took Marquette to overtime, who’s a top ten team in the nation.

Louisville Basketball has faced the 4th hardest schedule in the country with a strength of schedule percentage of .606. Only Penn State, Duke, and Kansas has faced a harder strength of schedule. This will bode well for them once they reach the NCAA tournament.

Louisville can make an appearance in the Sweet 16 for three legitimate reasons.

1. The strongest reason for a possible Sweet 16 berth is Chris Mack’s NCAA tournament history. At Xavier, Mack made the tournament eight times and led Xavier to the sweet 16 four times. He also made a trip to the Elite Eight in 2016-2017 season. He is almost guaranteed to achieve a victory when March Madness begins.

He has only been one and done in the NCAA tournament once in his seven trips. Mack has exceeded expectation within the toughest conference in the country in the ACC. Mack has taken a team that was lacking in overall talent and depth made developed them into an ACC contender.

2. Louisville is favored offensively and defensively according to analytics. According to the Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings, Louisville is 20th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency in the country. They are one of six teams that are ranked in the top 20 in both categories. The other five are Kentucky, Virginia, North Carolina, Michigan State, and Duke.

Those are national contenders and Louisville is in the similar realm as them according to analytics.  Also, The NCAA Evaluation Tool, which will be known as the NET, has Louisville ranked 17th. NET rating relies on game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses.

3. The trio of Jordan Nwora, Dwayne Sutton, and Christen Cunningham is strong enough to lead Louisville basketball to a Sweet 16 NCAA tournament appearance. Jordan Nwora is an NBA draft prospect as Sports Illustrated Jeremy Woo has him ranked in the top 40.  He’s averaging 17.3 points in conference play, while shooting 38% from there and averaging seven rebounds a game. At any moment he can explode and produce a 20 point game in the NCAA tournament where points will be at a premium. Dwayne Sutton is the heart and soul of this team.

When he is on the court, Louisville is plus 11.6, which Is top ten in the ACC. He’s averaging 13 points and seven rebounds per game while shooting 52% from the floor and 37% from three. His offensive rating in ACC play is 120.1 which is 12th in the ACC.

Christen Cunningham is the most valuable player on the roster. He is averaging 11.6 points per game. and seven assists in conference play (leads in the ACC). He has an offensive rating of 119.2 which is top 20 in conference play. Louisville offense can get disjointed when he’s not playing at a high level. His distribution ability makes everybody’s job easier as he has had assist games of 12, 11, and nine.

Louisville basketball has defied plenty of doubters. With the way the season is projecting, an impressive NCAA tournament run should be in the future to conclude a successful inaugural season for Chris Mack