College basketball seems to be wide open heading into the postseason, but according to our favorite data analytics, these 6 teams have what it takes to win a title.
Although they can’t tell you the full story, stats don’t often lie in college basketball. Opinions and rankings in sports are subjective, but have always been able to guide the average fan. However, where the eye test fails, analytics can help pick up the slack.
That’s exactly why we love using analytics from the college basketball wizard himself, Ken Pomeroy, AKA “Doctor Po Po.” KenPom uses advanced analytics to predict how teams will ultimately end up fairing come season’s end. Pomeroy uses some stuff that is way over the average fans heads, like luck, adjusted tempo, or the “Log5” equation. If you’re a huge college basketball nut like us, you can subscribe to his website for all kinds of nerdy round ball goodness.
However, what we want to focus on is a trend that has turned into more of a statistical standard. Since 2002 when Pomeroy began his site, there have been two statistics that a team had to adhere to if they wanted a chance at winning the national championship:
- Rank in the top 20 in KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive efficiency rankings
- Rank in the top 20 in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive efficiency rankings
That’s it.
Throw Log5, Will Hunting-esque algorithms, and your protractor out the window. If you do those two things, you statistically have the best chance of winning a national title.
In 17 seasons of KenPom, only one team has taken exception to this rule: 2014 UConn (36 adj. O, 10 adj. D). And it damn near took Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright going full God Mode on everyone in the NCAA tournament to get it done.
16 out of 17 seasons, a team with an adjusted offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency ranking inside of the top 20 has won the whole shebang. It’s still a smaller sample size, but it appears that the Ken Pomeroy method works very well.
Pomeroy is different in that he uses a formula as a predictive tool, whereas rankings and seedings are typically more like a power ranking based on your most recent accomplishments. KenPom is better than most at predicting what you are going to do before you do it, and if you buck the trend a few times, the rankings will reflect as such. For instance, the human polls had Tennessee at No. 1 for five weeks, while Kenpom.com ranked them 7th. Pom has the Vols as only the 40th best offensive team in the country. Even though Duke dropped a head scratcher to Syracuse in January, the analytics indicate that Duke is still overall a far superior team.
The week-to-week human polls can be fun to keep up with, but when it’s time to get down to brass tacks, KenPom has proven most reliable over and over. That’s why we love it, and trust it.
With 3 weeks left until the postseason, there are still games left to be played, and rankings are subject to change. But as of right now- if statistics hold true- there are 6 teams that have a shot at winning the national title.
Note: Rankings are updated as of February 20th, 2019