Louisville Basketball: 3 bold predictions for Virginia
By Nick Conner
Louisville gets to the Charity Stripe with regularity, and shoots at least 80%
A great deal of Louisville’s offensive success this season has come inside the paint and specifically at the charity stripe. Example A: the Cards got to the line 24 times against Duke. (And yes I understand they lost that game but for 32+ mins we saw the best Louisville offense of the year).
Louisville’s offensive success on Saturday will directly correlate with their ability to get the ball in the paint and finish, or get to the foul line. Slashers like Christen Cunningham, Jordan Nwora, and Dwayne Sutton must consistently get into the painted area, create contact, and convert. I expect that they will. Those three combined for 12 of the 18 free throws attempted against Syracuse and will need to get to the line with regularity against UVA.
Louisville will simply be different on the offensive end on Saturday. Expect them to have early success with their downscreens as Virginia defenders go under them and for early made deep looks to proceed success off the bounce and at the rim. A few Nwora threes early would do wonders for Louisville’s chances in the lane as the game progresses.
If and when Louisville gets to the free throw line they will find consistent offense against Virginia’s stymie defense. This is how Virginia has picked up their only two losses of the season–both to Duke. In the first matchup the blue devils simply owned the paint, renamed it Zion World, and had their way for 40 minutes. The most recent matchup was the exact opposite as Cam Reddish and R.J. Barrett set the world on fire from deep. The two combined for 11 of Duke’s 13 made threes.
While the Cards may hit 10+ threes on Saturday (see: UNC game), a more surefire way to offensive success will come in controlling the painted area. If the Cards can establish a paint presence early, slash to the rim effectively, and convert once they get to the line: they will win.