Louisville Basketball: March is here, seeding possibilities for the Cards

March has arrived, so let’s take a look at potential NCAA tournament seeds for Louisville basketball.

It wasn’t too long ago that Louisville basketball was sitting in great shape for the NCAA tournament. On February 9th, the NCAA released a sneak peak at what the selection committee thought the top 16 teams were seeded. Louisville came in as a 4 seed.

At the start of the season, I don’t think anyone thought that a 4 seed or higher was a possibility for the Cardinals. However, in early February it was looking that away. Louisville had just gone on a run winning 7 of their last 8 games, including two huge road wins against North Carolina and Virginia Tech.

It was mere hours after that selection show that things took a turn for the Louisville basketball program. There was the late lead that evaporated against FSU, the record breaking collapse against Duke, the no show against Syracuse, another double digit lead blown against Virginia, and the embarrassment at Boston College.

Today all that stands between Louisville and a six game losing streak was a highlight Jordan Nwora block to save them from another epic collapse down the stretch.

Needless to say, the Cardinals are no longer a 4 seed. But to begin the discussion about where they could end up being seeded, we have to take in to consideration a few factors.

1. We know where they stood on Feb. 9th.
2. We know their NET ranking and how important that will be as a factor.
3. We know at least 2 of the 3+ games they have left to play.

Keeping in mind these three items, here is a look at what I think is the best case, worst case, and most likely scenarios.

Best Case

Technically, the best case scenario would be to win the last 2 games of the regular season and then win the ACC tournament. That would be amazing. Especially given how Louisville is playing right now. In that dream scenario, Louisville would be getting an elite tier 1 win against Virginia and the presumably at least another big win or two in the ACC tournament. Even with those added on to the record, Louisville still has 11 losses. I think this best case scenario nets Louisville a 5 seed.

Worst Case

Conversely, the worst case scenario would be to lose both of the last 2 regular season games and then lose the first game in the ACC tournament. While this also appears to be a long shot, unfortunately, it seems far more likely than the first scenario. This would give Louisville 14 losses including 8 of their last 9. The old last ten games factor is no longer a selection factor exactly, but that type of season collapse would have to seriously affect the selection committee. I think this worst case scenario lands Louisville a 10 seed.

Most Likely

I think the most likely scenario is that Louisville wins 1 more game this season. They have Notre Dame next which is a pretty bad team and the game is at home. Given the craziness of this season, I take nothing for granted. Louisville has bad losses in Pitt (last in ACC) and Boston College (worst KenPom rated loss since 2012). They also have great wins against MSU and at North Carolina. Currently, Louisville is still sitting at 25 in the NET rankings so these last losses have slid them back but they haven’t taken a complete tumble. If Louisville wins against Notre Dame or maybe 1 in the ACC tournament, I think that puts them in the 7-8 seed range. As of this writing, bracket matrix shows an average of 122 published bracket predictions and they average right at a 7 seed (6.61). I think a 6 is possible but they would have to win more than one more game and right now I just don’t see that happening. Let’s hope I am wrong.

No matter which scenario we look at; best, worst, craziest, I think it is safe to say that all of them are better scenarios than last year. It’s nice to know again late in the season that your team will be going in the tournament and just worried about what seed or location they are playing in. Last year was harsh reminder of how spoiled we have been with our basketball team for most of the last 40 years.