One of the toughest 2019 fantasy quarterbacks to project is the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson. We break down when you should take him, and what kind of value he brings.
It’s that time of year again. Fantasy football drafts are right around the corner, and you are scouring the internet for sleeper picks, preseason rankings, and anything to get a leg up on the competition.
One of the most talked-about fantasy quarterbacks since the end of last season is Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, who took the world by storm last season.
Jackson took over for an injured Joe Flacco in week 11 and never relinquished the job, leading his squad to a 6-1 record, and becoming the youngest quarterback to ever start an NFL playoff game in the process.
Now that Jackson is the face of his franchise, he has the keys to the car. And to a lot of fantasy owners, that means big-time potential points-wise.
Examining last season
From week 11 to week 17, Jackson racked up 130.16 fantasy points, good for 18.59 points per game, which was eighth-best in the league over that stretch.
Jackson scored five touchdowns through the air in the last five weeks and four on the ground, while also throwing for three interceptions.
What had most owners excited was his ability to rack up points on run plays where he accounted for 520 yards- 52.0 points in standard leagues- just on the ground alone. While, in standard leagues, quarterbacks can only get a point for every 25 passing yards recorded, those rushing yards (0.1 per yard) start to add up quickly.
Overall, Jackson was a solid late-year pick-up for owners who opted to take a lower-tier quarterback in their draft and needed a little extra juice.
What is Jackson’s floor?
One could argue that Jackson has no floor at all, but for the sake of arguing… If Jackson remains healthy, his floor is as a bottom-tier quarterback.
It should be mentioned that there’s a small chance that the Lamar Jackson experiment in Baltimore might not work at all. NFL defenses have become adept to picking up on run-heavy quarterbacks and their habits and in the past have been able to limit or shut down running quarterbacks in their later seasons.
One must consider that Jackson’s playing style makes him more susceptible to injuries. Though he has yet to have any injuries sideline him in his career, Jackson has sustained a lot of wear and tear on his body from various hits he sustained. Getting sacked over 100 times in three years at Louisville will do that to a guy.
So, when drafting, you have to realize that there is a boom-or-bust aspect of taking Jackson.
What is Jackson’s ceiling?
This is why you’re here: because of Jackson’s undeniable potential as one of the NFL’s next great superstars.
If you rewind the clock a decade, many remember having a similar conundrum when drafting Michael Vick. The quarterback who Jackson draws the most comparisons to was oft-injured but when he was healthy, it was hard not to start him.
He rewarded fantasy owners with multiple games with more than 30 points and set a few records by tallying as many as 61 points in some fantasy leagues during a 2010 drubbing of the Redskins.
Now, owners are salivating over the potential of having Jackson do similar things for their squad.
While it’s unfair to expect crazy numbers every game, there’s potential for Jackson to consistently perform as he did in the season finale in 2018 against the Browns. He passed for 179 yards while running for two touchdowns and another 90 yards on the ground.
If Jackson can remain consistent and continue to improve in the passing game, he could be a lethal fantasy choice and could have QB1 potential.
There are players like Pat Mahomes and David Goff who can get it done through the air with a group of dynamic wide receivers. However, Jackson has the potential to be a mid-tier passing quarterback, while also putting up RB2 numbers. Put those together and 20-plus points per game is not out of the question.
So, where should you draft Jackson?
This answer is not so simply put because every draft varies. Some drafts value quarterbacks much more than they really should.
For instance, in the case of one of my leagues, Mahomes was taken in the first round, creating a domino effect where nobody wanted to be left with a low-end QB. I had secured Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson by the eighth round.
There are other drafts where back-up running backs start coming off the board before quarterbacks and receivers are going, and thus your hand is forced to get your ground game in-check before going quarterback crazy.
The answer is this: feel it out, and value your choices based on personnel, league rules and size, and the way your opponents are drafting.
Like most quarterbacks, Jackson probably shouldn’t be taken before round five, just because there are so many more players with overall value that will still be out there. However, you shouldn’t feel bad if Jackson is taken as a top 10-15 quarterback.
Jackson’s value in the ground game makes his upside outweigh his shortcomings, and if you pair him with another proven quarterback on the board, he could wind up being the biggest steal of your fantasy draft.
Final Verdict: Jackson should be treated as a 7-10th round choice with a low floor and a top tier ceiling.