Louisville football: 3 locks and 3 bold predictions vs. Florida State

Jacob’s lock: Louisville wins the offensive time of possession battle

To me, one of the biggest indicators of who will win the matchup between Louisville and Florida State is time of possession.

That’s an area of offense that Louisville has shown the ability to be able to dominate so far in the 2019 season. While it hasn’t been where it probably should be and eventually will be under Scott Satterfield, to be able to hold the ball offensively for an average of nearly 30 minutes per game is incredible.

Heading into Saturday’s game Louisville currently holds a 29:12 (77th) to 23:10 (130th) advantage in time of possession over Florida State, which shows the quick improvement of not only the Louisville offense but particularly the offensive line and ability to get first downs.

While that has been an area of strength for Louisville (they are currently 3-0 on time of possession through three games) has been a huge struggle for Florida State and reason they’ve lost the two games the way they have.

Scoring and scoring quickly has not been an issue at all for Florida State, except for the pressure it has put on the defense. As games have progressed as the FSU offense has scored, punted, or even had turnovers, they’ve mostly done so rather quickly. That’s forced the struggling defense to be on the field for long periods of time, which has resulted in them giving up long sustained drives that end in points, which of course has led to the 1-2 start with two late comebacks by Boise State and Virginia.

Florida State head coach Willie Taggart spoke about the time of possession issue, saying:

"“Again, we could have stayed on the field a little more offensively. It would have helped them. But I do think we need more than 20 minutes of time of possession as an offense. I don’t think whether we’re scoring a lot — we still need more than 20 minutes time of possession, so we can be better from that standpoint but I don’t necessarily think that’s a big factor overall.”"

It’ll be easier said than done, but if Louisville can continue to establish the ground game with Javian Hawkins and Hassan Hall, while mixing in efficient passing plays from either Malik Cunningham or Jawon Pass, they should be able to repeat what they’ve done through the first three games of the season against a pretty pedestrian defense.

Presley’s bold prediction: Louisville scores on defense or special teams

In three games, Florida State has five turnovers lost.

The mindset in Tallahassee right now is win or bust. This feels like a game where the Seminoles are going to be pressing a bit. If FSU finds itself down early and pressed to hit big plays, this is when Louisville’s defense can take advantage.

Also, consider that Louisville is one of the best teams in the country in limiting big plays. If FSU’s offense wants to push the ball downfield in a hurry, that plays into the hands of the Cards’ bend-but-don’t-break defensive style.

Florida State wants to move quickly, but the Cards’ secondary has been stout in the passing game. A team that averages four pass breakups a game, Louisville is due to finally break through and get an interception or even pick-six.

Lastly, the Seminoles have yet to be tested in kick-off return coverage.

That will likely change on Saturday as both teams are likely to be kicking directly into a 10-15 mph wind for two quarters, or with a slight crosswind thus preventing FSU from booting every kick-off out of the back of the endzone as they most often do. Louisville’s Hassan Hall has been electric in the return game, and this could be his time to shine.