Louisville football: Predicting the remainder of the 2019 schedule
Probable Wins
Louisville’s probable wins are games that, in my assessment, the Cardinals have a better chance of winning than losing. In fact, as far as “probable wins” go, these games would be pretty surprising losses were the Cards not able to pull out a victory.
The FPI tends to disagree, but computer rankings aren’t everything.
Syracuse
November 21st
Nationally, Syracuse was a team that was expected to push Clemson in the ACC Atlantic division coming off of one of the program’s better seasons in the last decade.
Dino Babers still has this team on the right track, but the Orange have really stumbled out the gate to start 2019.
Syracuse limped past Liberty to start the season and then was crushed by Maryland in an embarrassing week two blowout. Week three saw them lose, predictably, 41-6 to Clemson before they got back on the right track by handling two inferior opponents in Western Michigan and Holy Cross.
The Orange sit at 3-2, but their three wins are against some pretty bad teams, and in their two losses they looked terrible against power five opponents.
This team’s game plays right into Louisville’s hands. And on a cold November day (and Senior day at that), it seems that Syracuse won’t want any part in having to stop Louisville’s rushing offense.
As bad as Louisville’s defense has been at giving up big plays and forcing the Cards to win in some shootouts, Syracuse has been even worse. They gave up 33 to WMU and 63 to Maryland. They are vulnerable up front and in the secondary, which bodes well for the Cards who will want to hold onto the ball all game.
Louisville will still have to contend with a hurry-up offense that is now led by Tommy DeVito (11 TDs, 5 INT) and running back Moe Neal, but as the Cards saw against Florida State, an ineffective hurry-up can play right into their hands in the time of possession game.
Look for this game to be closer than it actually feels as the Cards secure a victory in their final home game of the season.
ESPN FPI: 62.7% chance to win
BRL prediction: Louisville 35, Syracuse 28
at NC State
November 16th
Though the FPI actually still likes NC State in this one- likely due to home-field advantage- NC State and Louisville are two programs headed in opposite directions.
The Wolfpack has put a ton of players in the league over the last two years, but the back-ups and newcomers have yet to prove as effective as their predecessors.
NC State’s quarterback situation is still very much up in the air as Matthew McKay and transfer Bailey Hockman have not been able to effectively replace a former all-conference player in Ryan Finley.
The one bright spot for a squad who has been pretty average through five games is State’s run defense, where they give up less than 100 yards per game. However, we saw against Florida State that a solid back is going to get his against their front four regardless when Cam Akers went for 83 yards and a score on only 17 carries.
Louisville figures to be able to move the ball effectively still, and unless the Pack finds their guy at quarterback, they should have enough to come away with a victory.