Louisville football: Three reasons why the Cards will defeat Wake Forest
By Jacob Lane
Louisville’s defense will win two key categories
Yes, this is a bit of a bold prediction to think that Louisville’s defense could be the difference-maker against a ranked team. But after what I saw last weekend against a very capable team in Boston College – I think Louisville’s only reached the tip of the iceberg when it comes to two key categories.
One being forcing turnovers/winning the turnover battle and two being winning the third-down battle on offense.
Louisville’s defense really struggled to cover the Boston College receivers (mostly the tight ends) last week, but when it mattered they came up with big forced turnovers. At the end of the day, the interception by Anthony Johnson and the forced fumble and recovery my Monty Montgomery were the difference.
Against Wake, Louisville will have to be even better when it comes to getting extra possessions for their offense. Quarterback Jamie Newman has been extremely effective throwing the football this season, throwing 14 touchdowns to just three interceptions preseting a big challenge for the defense.
However, when it comes to the level of aggression – Wake Forest has yet to see anyone close to the defensive talent as Louisville. The Cards currently are ranked as the 64th best total defense in the country, the 71st best rushing defense, and the 65th best passing defense. While Wake Forest has yet to see a total defense or passing defense better than Louisville and has only seen one team better at stopping the run – Utah State.
While these numbers don’t mean a ton, suprisingly it shows that this will without question be Wake Forest’s biggest challenge of the season.
Louisville will also have to win the third-down battle against the nation’s top third-down offense. So far through five games, Wake Forest has converted on 93 percent of their third-down attempts, while the Cards have gotten stops on just .339 percent of conversions.
You may think I’m crazy to think that Louisville will be able to stop the nation’s top conversion offense, but when you look at the last two games it’s not as crazy as you may think.
Against Florida State, Louisville’s defense went 5/14 on the game while last Saturday against BC the were 4/15 against one of the nation’s top running backs and a third-down nightmare showing incredible improvement from week-to-week.
There’s tons of improvement through just five games and I fully expect to see that, along with more turnovers on Saturday. If Louisville can force the high-powered Wake Forest offense into short gains instead of those big down the field plays, they’ll have the opportunity to get off the field on third down due to their ability to stop the run and cover short. If the defense can’t win on first and second down, forcing longer third down plays, they will find themselves in a world of trouble and right where Wake Forest would want them.
Saturday, I believe we’ll see the best, most complete performance out of the defense and it’ll start with turnovers and third-down conversions.