Louisville football: How to watch, key match-ups, predictions vs. Virginia

Louisville football hosts ACC Coastal leading Virginia with another opportunity to earn a program-defining win. How to catch the match-up, and what to watch for.

When Louisville football entered the ACC conference, Cardinals fans were indifferent at best regarding the school’s yearly cross-division foe Virginia.

It has been decades since the Cavaliers carried a reputation for having an exciting brand of football, and in an ACC Coastal division that features schools like Miami, North Carolina, and Pittsburgh, for the Cardinals to be paired with Virginia in football was an afterthought.

Six seasons later, however, Louisville enters it’s match-up with their rivals as the team with much to prove. The Cardinals only hold a 3-2 series lead against the Cavaliers since entering the conference, dropping two of three on the road, while their only win in Charlottesville came only because of the heroics of Lamar Jackson during his 2016 Heisman season.

If Louisville hopes to push the modern series to a 4-2 lead, the Cards will have to do so as home underdogs to a quasi-ranked squad on the upswing under head coach Bronco Mendenhall.

Mendenhall has established a brand in the same mold as his teams during his time at BYU; A sound defense and tough-minded rushing offense that sets up high-risk, high-reward passing plays.

The Cavaliers are far from the most talented squad in the ACC, but a win this weekend would put them squarely in the driver’s seat to win the Coastal Division and square off against Clemson in the ACC Championship at year’s end.

For the Cardinals, an opportunity to move one step closer to bowl eligibility and put another notch under their belts amid a rebuild far ahead of schedule looms large. Virginia figures to be the best team remaining on Louisville’s schedule in a down ACC and a win could help the Cards seize enough momentum to finish the season on a higher note than anyone could have imagined.

Who: Virginia Cavaliers at Louisville Cardinals

When:  Saturday, October 26th, 2019 | 3:30 PM EST

Where: Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky

Spread check: Virginia -3.5 (courtesy of The Action Network)

Over/ Under: 52

70 percent of bets have been placed on Virginia after the Cavaliers opened as 3 point favorite

ESPN FPI: Virginia has a 62.3% chance to win

Uniform report:

Forecast:  High of 67 degrees,100 percent chance of rain

How to Watch: ACCNetwork

DirecTV- 612

Dish Network- 402

Spectrum- 937

AT&T UVerse- 610

How to listen: 790 WKRD AM (Paul Rogers, Craig Swabek, Doug Ormay)

Players to Watch:

Micale Cunningham, Louisville QB

Louisville is going to continue to go with a combination of Micale Cunningham and Evan Conley behind center but given the forecast for Saturday’s game, it’s fair to think that the Cards will try to keep it on the ground as often as possible.

Virginia boasts one of the best front seven units in the nation and will pose a real threat to Louisville’s offensive line. Though Conley has some wheels, he is not quite the runner that Cunningham is.

Look for the Cards to try to keep it on the ground more often and get creative in the rushing game with the running threats of Cunningham and the red-hot Javian Hawkins – especially if the rain becomes a major deterrent.

Bryce Perkins, Virginia QB

A season ago, Perkins had one of his best performances against the Cardinals in a game where he ran all over a helpless Louisville defense.

This year, Perkins has shown that his a more-than-capable passer, accounting for 1,570 yards through the air and 8 touchdowns to 7 interceptions.

Perkins isn’t going to light you up on the ground Lamar Jackson-style, but he has no issue with keeping the ball and getting a first down on a 5-10 yard run. In fact, Perkins has already eclipsed the 100-attempt mark, carrying 35 more times than the Cavs’ feature back Wayne Taulapapa.

While Virginia will be a bear to deal with through the air, on a miserable wet day they may opt to run Perkins and Taulapapa 50 + times and shorten the game for their stifling defense.

Match-up to watch: Louisville pass rush vs. Virginia offensive line

When considering what stats could help Louisville football turn this match-up in their favor, perhaps Virginia’s offensive line is it’s most glaring weakness.

This season, Bryce Perkins has been sacked on 22 occasions this season, which is 115th in the country. Meanwhile, Louisville has been much-improved along the front seven, getting to the quarterback 2.0 times per game.

In Virginia’s two losses, the Cavaliers gave up 8 sacks to Notre Dame and surrendered 5 sacks to Miami. If Louisville wants to add to the UVA loss column, getting to Perkins and forcing him to make quick decisions helps the game play more into their hands.

The Cards will have to continue to see its linebacking unit improve, however. Louisville’s defense is predicated on filling holes upfront when the offensive line is standing up and allowing the linebackers to come up the middle or off the edge. Perkins has already shown that he is mistake-prone when flushed from the pocket, either taking sacks or throwing poor passes when trying to extend a play.

In order for Louisville to come away with a win, the Cards will have to find ways to put consistent pressure on Perkins.

Predictions:

Jacob Lane: Louisville 21, Virginia 31

Presley Meyer: Louisville 26, Virginia 23