How Louisville football effectively skipped a year of rebuilding in 2019

Louisville football’s coaching change was expected to be met with a long-term rebuild. How the Cardinals are already maximizing talent in year one under Scott Satterfield.

Louisville football is far ahead of schedule. And the Cardinals are competing for a spot in a big-time bowl game only a year removed from the most disappointing season in school history.

That’s right. It’s not a typo. A big-time bowl. It is not out of the realm of possibility to think that the Cardinals have a legitimate chance to receive a bid to the Orange Bowl come season’s end.

Louisville would have a lot of work to do, and it would take some help from their Atlantic Division counterparts Clemson, but if the Cards and Tigers win out, it would more than likely land Clemson in the College Football Playoffs and leave Louisville to reap the benefits as the highest-ranked remaining team in the ACC.

In a season where Louisville has already dropped three games, it may seem unlikely that they finish on a five-game winning streak. But the heavy lifting on the schedule is done. Louisville figures to be the betting favorite, or at least around even odds, in every one of its remaining games.

If you believe in numbers, the Cards are projected to finish the season at 7-5 via ESPN FPI and the Sagarin ratings. Below, on the left is Louisville’s chance of winning according to the FPI, and on the right is the Cards’ predicted outcome based on the Sagarin computer model, calculating for home-field advantage.

at Miami: 32.9% chance to win | Miami favored by 4

at NC State: 52.3% chance to win | Louisville favored by 1

vs. Syracuse: 68.1% chance to win | Louisville favored by 6

at Kentucky: 30.9% chance to win | Kentucky favored by 4

However, Vegas models tend to factor in recent success more than overall stats, which tend to factor in a team’s early performance far more.

According to the Sagarin “Recent” model that more heavily weighs recent success, the 41st-ranked Cardinals are well ahead of Kentucky (45th), Miami (62nd), Syracuse (90th), and NC State (96th). That four-game stretch was much easier than their previous four games that saw Louisville go 3-1 against Boston College (78th), Wake Forest (38th), Clemson (4th), and Virginia (39th).

In other words, Louisville figures to be favored or a “pick ’em” against their remaining four opponents with a real chance to finish the regular season with 9 wins.

But how does that happen? How does a team that was supposed to be dead to rights for the next three years- or more- immediately start winning again?

How does a squad coming off of a 2-10 season, winless in its previous eight, projected to finish dead last in the ACC, put itself squarely into BCS Bowl conversation?

It starts at the top.

Recognizing the talent already in place

Louisville’s coaching staff started the rebuilding process forced to work with what they had. In December when Scott Satterfield took over, he and his staff had 65 days to fill out a barren recruiting class. That is an impossible time frame to work with given the relationships that coaching staffs establish with their players years in advance.

The Cardinals filled out the 2019 recruiting class with players with minimal to no power five offers- guys that would take a couple of years in the program to get a chance to see the field. Louisville would have to roll mainly with what they had leftover from the previous coaching staff, and based on their performance the previous year, the outcome was less than promising.

Two-thirds of the way through the 2019 season, the only significant contributors on Satterfield’s team that weren’t in Louisville last year are freshman quarterback Evan Conley, and graduate transfer center TJ McCoy, JUCO safety Isaiah Hayes, JUCO linebacker Monty Montgomery and grad transfer TJ Holl. Only Conley, McCoy, and Montgomery have notched a start under their belts.

Louisville had to make do with what they had, changing the positions of more than a dozen players in hopes of implementing their system and running it effectively in less than eight months.

Maximizing potential

There are two things that have been apparent about Satterfield’s methodology in 2019. Firstly, Satterfield is going to do things his way, but if it isn’t working, he is going to adjust to fix it.

The first became crystal clear over the course of the first quarter of the season. Satterfield is a ball-control freak. In every game this year, the Cardinals have won the time of possession. Louisville is going to try to run the air out of the ball and control the game, and when they don’t have the ball the Cardinals will do everything in their power to get it back.

It was well known that the strengths of this Louisville team were in the passing game on offense and in a deep linebacking unit on defense. In spite of that, Louisville stunned the college football world the first game of the season by sticking to its guns and running the football like crazy against Notre Dame in its season opener. Star receivers Dez Fitzpatrick, Seth Dawkins, and Tutu Atwell were rarely looked to. Instead, little-known 3-star running back Javian Hawkins owned the ground game en route to a much closer game than anyone could have anticipated.

Still, entering games against Florida State and Boston College, it was a given that the Cardinals would have to take to the air more, or the far more athletic offenses of power five foes could take advantage of Louisville’s lack of defensive depth. That’s where Satterfield’s flexibility comes into play.

Just as most were beginning to assume that the Cardinals were a one-trick pony with a ground and pound offense and a bend-but-don’t-break defense, Louisville began to assert itself in other ways- namely as a highly efficient passing offense.

In three consecutive games against conference foes, Louisville reeled off 286, 304, and 295 yards passing against Florida State, Boston College, and Wake Forest. The Cardinals played back-up Micale Cunningham and the true freshman Conley in all three games but didn’t see a dip in performance with either player behind center. Louisville still maintained an effective ground game going for 124, 259, and 225 yards respectively, but Satterfield and co.’s once-passive approach began falling by the wayside.

Louisville is still running the ball 65 percent of the time on the season, but Satterfield is showing that he can change up what he has traditionally done if it favors the team.

Overhauling team culture

It shouldn’t go unnoticed that the teams Louisville has beaten to put them into the national conversation- No. 19 Wake Forest, and No. 27 Virginia- are two schools that have been slowly rebuilding over the last 3-4 years.

The Cards were underdogs in both games, and rightfully so. The truth of the matter is, as a team that gave up over 50 points per game last season en route to a 2-10 record, Louisville should have no business in a game against Wake Forest- a team that entered the match-up with the nation’s 4th-longest winning streak. The Cardinals shouldn’t beat a Virginia team that is the heavy favorite to win the ACC coastal.

If there are two teams that know what it’s like to have to patiently wait their turn on the way back into ACC relevancy its those two schools. The first two years Dave Clawson took over at Wake Forest, the Demon Deacons went 3-9. It wasn’t until his third season that Wake squeaked into a bowl game, going 7-6, 8-5, and 7-6 over the last three. Virginia was much the same under Bronco Mendenhall. His first season, the Cavaliers went 2-10 before turning in 6-7 and 8-5 records.

This was supposed to be the year for the schools Louisville notched their two biggest wins over. Yet, it’s the Cardinals who are skipping ahead, accomplishing what Virginia, Wake Forest, Boston College, Syracuse, and others have been trying to build for years in a matter of months.

If you take a look around Louisville’s locker room, you can see why the Cardinals effectively pressed the fast forward button and are amid a season that was expected perhaps in 2020, but more than likely 2021 or beyond.

There’s not a single player on the 2019 Louisville team who hasn’t bought in, and it shows. Players like CARD linebacker Rodjay Burns and safety Russ Yeast have adopted new roles. Athletes like former preferred walk-ons Jack Fagot and Marshon Ford are making a serious impact. But overall, this team is having fun.

After each home win, the media waits silently inside the linebackers team meeting room, directly adjacent to Louisville’s locker room. The sound and energy felt next door is palpable. Defensive line coach Mark Ivey- now better known for his bloody pre-game antics- leads the team in cheers. The players dance and celebrate in chaotic fashion.

It’s coaches like Ivey, or the impassioned Dale Jones along with personalities of Satterfield, offensive coordinator Dwayne Ledford, receivers coach Gunter Brewer, and so many others that have helped with Louisville’s turn-around.

With their leadership, a team that already had talent is exploding onto the scene. Sure, Louisville lacks depth, and there are plenty of areas of improvement. But one thing is very clear: This Louisville team loves each other, and the players love their coaches.

If there’s more of a perfect example of a direct juxtaposition from one coaching staff to another, it certainly has never happened in the same locker room like Louisville’s transition from 2018 to 2019.

Louisville is close to breaking open one of the best seasons in program history on the heels of unquestionably its worst. You can talk up stats, game-planning, and other factors, but hands down the most important factor is team culture.

Under its new coachings staff, Louisville football is primed to take another step towards becoming a top tier team in the ACC.