Looking at Louisville football’s chances at earning Orange Bowl bid

In year one, Scott Satterfield has the Louisville football program overachieving already at 5-3, including a win over a top 25 program on the road. Can that run continue onward to the 2020 Orange Bowl?

Had you told me back in December of 2018 before Scott Satterfield was hired to replace Bobby Petrino as the leader and head coach of the Louisville football program that the Cards were going to make a bowl game, I may have slapped you.

Despite the talent that was still on the roster, Louisville was coming off of a 2-10 season that was a complete and utter disaster, ultimately leading to the dismissal of Petrino and his staff. After the Jeff Brohm train took a u-turn back up to Lafayette, things looked even worse.

Who would want to lead a program that was broken? The players were broken, the environment was toxic and the future of a program once considered to be on a collision course looked like it could become the next program to free fall into oblivion.

Fast forward to the offseason.

Louisville’s players seemed to be buying in and believing the culture and program turnaround that Satterfield and his new staff were preaching.

Gone were the days of players not knowing where the coaches’ offices were, bridges being burned with local and regional high school coaches, players feeling unloved and unneeded, and the general toxicity of the program.

In was a new way of doing things. One where players were pushed to be themselves by a group of like-minded, family first coaches who just wanted their guys to love football and be successful both on and off the field.

Its translated into wins, a lot faster than anyone has expected.

Before the season knowing what I knew then, I may have agreed with you if you told me that the Cards were capable of winning five to six games – but the limitations that we thought we’d see would have made me think twice.

Fast forward to today and I stand in disbelief of the improvement of the players on and off the field. Louisville has quickly found their footing in the ACC, winning a game against no. 19 Wake Forest on the road (the first since joining the ACC) and picking up another crucial victory against Coastal favorite Virginia.

Now at 5-3 (3-2) following the final bye week of the season, Louisville will go toe-to-toe with one of the most notorious programs in the ACC, Miami. This isn’t the Hurricanes team of years past, but it is a team that will be another defensive nightmare for the Cards that will make the players earn every single yard and every point.

While the coaches haven’t been pushing the “bowl eligible” message to their players, media and fans are paying close attention.

Louisville stands just one game away from being able to call themselves bowl eligible, a feat in itself that shows the progress this team has made. While just getting to a bowl is big, there’s a chance for more. A lot more.

Not only does the Louisville football program have a chance at making one of the more prestigious bowls this season,  but a trip to the Orange Bowl is not out of reach.

In fact, if Louisville is able to beat Miami on Saturday they will put themselves in the driver’s seat to make a run at a bowl that no one on the planet could have predicted they’d have a chance at.

The first thing that has to be noted when it comes to the Orange Bowl is simple. If Louisville doesn’t win against Miami, there’s no chance.

While the Hurricanes are nearly seven-point favorites and have a 72.3 percent chance of beating Louisville according to ESPN’s FPI predictor, Louisville has proven they can play with teams that possess great defenses. Just ask Virginia.

So here’s how it will work. Along with Clemson, Wake Forest, and Virginia, Louisville will spend the next four weeks of the season battling for position. At stake are:

• Trip to the College Football Playoff (Only Clemson)
• Trip to the Orange Bowl (Clemson, Wake Forest, Louisville)
• Trip to any of the following bowl: Camping World, Belk, Sun, Music City, Pinstripe

Below are all four teams schedules and ESPN’s FPI predictions.

Clemson

@ North Carolina State (97.4 percent)

#19 Wake Forest (95.9 percent)

@ South Carolina (89.1 percent)

Wake Forest

@ Virginia Tech (59.6 percent)

@ #5 Clemson (4.1 percent)

Duke (62.7 percent)

@ Syracuse (69.2 percent)

Louisville

@ Miami (27.7 percent)

@ North Carolina State (57.4 percent)

Syracuse (74.9 percent)

@ Kentucky (31.4 percent)

Virginia

Georgia Tech (91.3 percent)

Liberty (91.8 percent)

Virginia Tech (78.3 percent)

Analysis

Sitting at 5-3 (3-2) Louisville doesn’t quite the luxury to say that they “control their own destiny” when it comes to finding themselves in the Orange Bowl in just Scott Satterfield’s first season. Had they beaten Florida State, then things would look a little different but shoulda, woulda, coulda doesn’t work when it comes to earning a bid to a New Years Six game as a non-conference championship winner or participant.

Here’s the great news, however.

Louisville’s beaten the two teams in the ACC who would be in line to receive the bid to the Orange Bowl, assuming that Clemson goes on to make the College Football Playoff (if they don’t this conversation is a moot point).  Those teams are Virginia 6-3 (4-2), who currently sits atop the standings of the Coastal Division, as well as no. 19 ranked Wake Forest who are 7-1 (3-1).

Assuming that Virginia doesn’t lose to Georgia Tech, Liberty, or Virginia Tech they’ll find themselves in the ACC Championship where they would need a miracle to take down Clemson. They’d finish at 9-4 overall and would have a very small likelihood of being in the College Football Top 25 rankings, which matter a ton here.

Wake Forest is the team that all Louisville fans need to be watching closely, again assuming Louisville beats the final four opponents on their schedule. Dave Clawson’s team have been incredible this season, which only speaks to how big of a win that was for Satterfield and the Cards last month. To get a top 25 win in year one after taking over a 2-10 is monumental to rebuilding in general, but to do it against one of the most high-powered offenses ON THE ROAD speaks testaments to just how special the next several years for Louisville can be.

Thanks to that win, Louisville will have the head-to-head tie over Wake Forest, but assuming Wake Forest only loses to no. 5 Clemson next weekend, beating Virginia Tech, Duke, and Syracuse, they’ll still hold a better overall record than Louisville at 10-2 but the two would share the same conference record.

Just a little side note: Had UofL been able to finish out Florida State, and everything else played out the same as it has since, we’d be talking about Louisville being the unanimous selection for the Orange Bowl (again, assuming they win out).

If Wake Forest upsets Clemson, then none of this conversation matters at all. But assuming Clemson takes care of business and both teams win out, things will get very tricky.

This is where the College Football Playoff rankings will come into play in a very big way. I’ve spent the last three days researching the New Years Six bowls, ACC bowl tie-ins, and how tiebreakers work. It’s confusing in a ton of different ways, but for the sake of this tiebreaker all that will matter is the College Football Ranking as Louisville will own the head-to-head, and Wake will have the better record overall.

If you remember back in 2016, Louisville found themselves in a very tricky tiebreaker with Clemson and Florida State, after falling to the Tigers and destroyed FSU. That however worked differently than this because of the three-way team time. Ultimately, it didn’t matter and Clemson earned the nod to the CFB Playoff and Florida State went to the Orange Bowl.

Projections

This season it will be just two teams vying for the Orange Bowl, assuming the schedules play out as I envision. Here are my projections:

• Clemson: 13-0 (Beat UVA in Conference Title, go on to CFB Playoff)
• Wake Forest: 10-2 (Lose to Clemson)
• Louisville: 9-3 (Win out)
• Virginia: 9-4 (Win out, lose to Clemson in Conference Title)

According to an article written this week by Joe Giglio of The News & Observer, the ultimate decider of who ends up playing in the Orange Bowl will be the College Football Playoff.

When the final rankings are released, whoever is ranked higher will go on to play in the Orange Bowl on New Years Day.

As of today (11/8/2019) Louisville finds themselves outside of the top 25 (deservedly so) while Wake Forest comes in at no. 19 and Clemson is no. 5 (that won’t stay that way). Between now and the end of the season a lot will probably change, both inside the playoff and out.

A lot will be decided on November 16th (next weekend), when Wake Forest travels to Clemson in a battle that will ultimately decide whether Clemson will all but lock up their trip to the ACC Championship. Should Clemson win, no. 19 Wake Forest would take a tumble in the CFB rankings. How far they’d fall would be the question.

Should Louisville knock off Miami on Saturday, by far their toughest opponent remaining on the schedule, the Cards would likely crack the top 25 of the rankings for the first time at just the right time.

With Louisville favored to beat their final three opponents, including rival Kentucky, there’s a good chance they could jump Wake Forest by the final rankings.

However, that’s a big if.

Basically, as things stand today (a lot will change by tomorrow evening) Louisville needs some help, but getting to the Orange Bowl in the first year of Scott Satterfield’s tenure is not out of the realm of possibilities.

When he took over back in December, no one could have dreamed of the Cards having this much success this quick. While there is still plenty of work to be done, the fact that we are even having this conversation just goes to show how great of a job Satterfield and his staff have done, and just how much the players have bought in.

New stars have developed and the team has continued to not only get better but evolve more and more each week. While the challenge is by no means easy, we could be looking at Louisville not only going bowling but making a run at a bowl bid late in 2019 or even in the New Year Six on New Year’s Day.

Unreal.

Go Cards!