Louisville football: How the Cards will beat Kentucky in the Governor’s Cup

Louisville will win the turnover and special teams battles

This game is expected to be a close one. The oddsmakers have Kentucky slated as a 3 point favorite. Basically saying that if this game was on a neutral field, the game would be a complete toss-up.

Kentucky’s three power five victories have all come against SEC opponents. But those SEC opponents, Arkansas, Missouri and Vanderbilt, are all going to be missing out on bowl games this year. They have a combined nine wins between the three of them. So this would undoubtedly be Kentucky’s best victory of the year.

In a game where it’s supposed to be close, little things can become big things. Louisville has to be the team making the game-changing play vs. the one allowing them to happen. Bowden has fumbled the ball at least once in five of the last seven games. Kentucky also features one of the most troublesome kicking situations in all of college football. This alone directly cost them the Tennessee game, as a missed extra point and the inability to even try a field goal in the second half meant doom for the Wildcats.

Field goals always seem like a failed drive, but points could be at a premium in the rain Saturday. Louisville kicker Ryan Chalifoux has to be ready to go into a tough road environment and come through when he’s needed to do so. Kentucky’s kicker, Chance Poore, is 105th in the country in field goal percentage. So even when Kentucky is in the red zone Saturday, the Louisville defense needs to stay strong and focused, as that far from means guaranteed points.

Louisville needs to dominate when it comes to the big things and the little things on Saturday and should be able to do so. This Cardinal football team has given you no reason to believe they can be beaten by a team as one dimensional as Kentucky. It’s a rivalry game and anything can happen. But I think the Cardinals get these three things done and emerge victorious in Lexington.