Louisville football: 3 bold predictions for the Cards vs. Mississippi State

Louisville wins the turnover battle

Mississippi State has been one of the better teams in the country this season at taking away the football from their opponent. They finished 2019 ranked 16th for total turnovers gained forcing 23 total turnovers while finishing t-3rd for most recovered fumbles with 13, and t-57th with 10 total interceptions.

Against really good teams, Mississippi State even with a mediocre defense was able to create turnovers consistently this season, forcing six of their nine power five opponents into at least one turnover, while forcing two more on four different occasions.

Louisville was much improved when it came to keeping hold of the football on offense and special teams in 2019 compared to 2018, finishing tied for 63rd nationally with 18th total turnovers lost while finishing t-54th and t-77th for INT’s and fumbles lost respectively.

Defensively in 2019, Louisville wasn’t bad when it came to taking away the football. Although they didn’t get their first interception until week six of the season against Boston College, they finished strong with seven interceptions and a combined 16 total turnovers.

Turnovers were a big story for Louisville in 2019 – one that until writing this piece I wasn’t even aware of. In 10 games against P5 programs, the Cards were able to win the turnover battle on five occasions against Boston College, Wake Forest, Virginia, North Carolina State, and Syracuse. You what all of those games had in common? They ended in a Louisville win.

While we’re playing this fun guessing game, take a stab at what the five teams who beat Louisville had in common.

Got your guess?

You got it. They all beat Louisville in the turnovers gained category.

Despite Mississippi State’s ability to create turnovers, I believe there’s a good chance Louisville finishes ahead of the Bulldogs in the total margin at game’s end.

Without Cam Dantzler and Brian Cole in the secondary, who combined two create five turnovers this season, the defense will already be behind. And considering their inability to stop big plays while giving up yardage on the ground (where Louisville hasn’t turned the ball over a ton), I think it leads to them being ineffective in collecting turnovers.

Also worth mentioning is the QB situation for both teams. Louisville will have continuity at the position heading into the bowl game, with Micale Cunningham set to start his 10th game of the season, while Tommy Stevens will be thrust back into the lineup after being on the bench to finish the season. On the year the graduate-transfer from Penn State threw for nine touchdowns and five interceptions while completing just 59 percent of his passes.

The opportunity will be there for the Cards to force turnovers. Now it’s up to them to win the battle – which should result in winning the game…. Right?