Louisville football: 3 bold predictions for the Cards vs. Mississippi State

Louisville gives up over 350 total rushing yards in a loss

If you’ve read any of my work this season you know that when it comes to telling you like it is, I’m going to do it. Sure, I am a fan much like you and I really enjoy watching Louisville win. But when you see a weakness or glaring hole in your team’s armor, you have to call it out.

That’s how it goes with the run defense for Louisville.  The numbers are what they are.

While the defense wasn’t great to start the season, through the first six or so games they did a good job of bending without breaking and coming up with turnovers when they had to have a stop.  They gave up a ton of yards and points more times than not, but they made winning plays.

However as the season went on the run and pass defenses were both susceptible to big plays and mistakes – which should come as a surprise to no one considering what the new staff had to work with when they took over, and it led to games like what we saw against Miami and Kentucky.

In their final five matchups, in which they went 2-3, Louisville gave up a total of 500 or more yards on three occasions, while allowing four teams to rush for over 190 yards including the 298 against Clemson, 261 against Syracuse, and 517 against you know who.

It has been nearly a month since their last game of the season where they gave up a record number of rushing yards, and there should be hope that with time off to rest and recover, as well as more time to spend on fundamentals and in meetings rooms watching film that a big improvement can be made.

Unfortunately, doing so against an opponent with a top 20 rushing offense will be too much. Soon to be NFL back Kylin Hill, who led the SEC in rushing in 2019, will in all likelihood be the second-best running back the Cards have faced this season and could produce at a level similar to Lynn Bowden Jr. and Travis Etienne if given a chance. Not to mention with Garrett Shrader out at quarterback, dual-threat transfer Tommy Stevens should also be able to contribute both on the ground as well as through the air.

Even with Mississippi State missing a ton of players and having other negative storylines impact their preparation, I still believe they’ll overpower the Cards front seven on their way to a big day offensively.

Scott Satterfield has been great in bowl games during his time as a head coach, but with a defense just barely hanging on by a thread, this one will be more of a learning experience than a reward.

Final score – Mississippi State 38, Louisville 34