Louisville basketball: Final thoughts before Battle of the Bluegrass

In the waning hours before Louisville basketball’s annual rivalry match-up with Kentucky, here are some final thoughts on the Cards’ potential.

Louisville basketball is looking to snap a two-game losing streak, and a road losing streak that has spanned 12+ years when it enters Rupp Arena for the Battle for the Bluegrass today.

Kentucky has owned this game in the John Calipari era, and the Wildcats still seem supremely confident entering the game regardless of their record to this point.

Here are some final thoughts leading up to the annual grudge match.

Louisville should win this game handily

Rivalries, home-court advantage, and other outside influences aside, Louisville should win this game.

Louisville has a better team. Louisville has, by far, the more experienced team. Louisville has the two or three best players. Louisville is far better defensively. Louisville is better inside. Louisville is the better shooting team.

What does Kentucky do better? What are their strengths that will give the Cardinals fits? We’ve talked about the match-ups at the two guard positions and how Ryan McMahon and Darius Perry are going to fair against Ashton Hagans and Tyrese Maxey, which one could argue is an area where the Cats have the upper hand.

However, Louisville has done a fantastic job of nullifying opposing teams with great guard play. Michigan’s Zavier Simpson is a stud who was unable to get any penetration against McMahon and Perry. Akron, Western Kentucky, and Pitt all had strong guards who were mostly held at bay.

Maybe Hagans and Maxey will present a new challenge, but a historical look at these two backcourts would indicate that if Perry maintains his composure and doesn’t allow Hagans to speed him up, the backcourt match-up should be a wash.

The Cardinals should look to dominate inside

Over the years, we have seen lots of bad John Calipari shooting teams. The Kentucky coach is of the school of thought that if you can play defense and rebound efficiently, your team is going to go far. While that is true, I’m not sure there has been a Cal-coached team at Kentucky with as bad of shooting and no presence whatsoever down low.

While most of the discussion has centered around UK’s shooting woes, where they really may have the hardest time is against Louisville down low.

The Cards bring a one-two punch of Steven Enoch and Malik Williams, who may be the premiere frontcourt in the country this season.

Louisville will likely look to get the ball to Enoch in the low post in the early going and assert its presence against Kentucky’s bigs Nick Richards and EJ Montgomery. Kentucky could be in a world of hurt if it is forced to play Montgomery for extended minutes.

At the four spot, Louisville will look to exploit the match-up of Jordan Nwora against Nate Sestina. The Bucknell transfer, Sestina, has been a liability against quicker players who can create their own shots. Nwora has a full arsenal of shots, is perhaps Louisville’s deadliest player from deep, and will be looking to make a statement in front of a national audience.

The X-Factor for Louisville

Every year, Louisville fans joke about a UK player having a breakout game against the Cardinals. Kentucky often finds its form in the Battle for the Bluegrass match-up for whatever reason and its typically a player that you least expect who steps up.

Let’s not forget, however, that Louisville has had players in the past rise to the occasion to win big games for them. I’ll take a Tim Henderson break out against Wichita State in the Final Four over a Josh Harrelson career game mid-season.

Regardless, we should be giving Calipari props for having his team ready when the lights are shining bright in a big rivalry game.

Louisville has been punked on a number of occasions over the last decade against Kentucky. But this is a new year and a new era led by a savvy coach with a veteran squad, and I don’t expect Louisville to be rattled like they have been in Rupp Arena in years past.

This year, I believe the X factor will be Dwayne Sutton. The redshirt senior has his final chance to play a big-time factor in a game that he grew up dreaming of playing in.

Sutton’s first two appearances in this game are perhaps his two worst performances as a Cardinal. In his sophomore season, Sutton played five minutes and recorded no stats. Last year, he only recorded 2 points and 3 rebounds.

In a year where Sutton is leading the Cardinals in rebounds and is looked at as a leader and team captain, it feels like it’s his time to shine and be the X-factor on the biggest stage.

Predictions

I’m not scared of Kentucky. Not this year at least.

Look, it’s a rivalry game, and weird stuff happens. Kentucky has owned this series lately, so I get why people would take pause and not want to flex their muscles, but this year is different.

Chris Mack never coached at Kentucky. There’s no love lost between Mack and the wildcats. Calipari isn’t trying to get into his head at pressers and Mack seems unphased by the rivalry and the big stage.

I find it highly unlikely that Kentucky is able to get under Louisville’s skin, and that’s really the only advantage that the Cats would be able to have over Louisville in this one.

The Cards will break the streak in Rupp and I believe they will do so handily.

Louisville 71, Kentucky 62

You can find the rest of the BRL gang’s predictions here.