No. 7 Louisville basketball set to host gritty No. 18 Florida State

Get FSU into foul trouble and hit free-throws

One of the uglier stat lines from Louisville’s loss to Kentucky was the discrepancy in free throw shooting. The Cards shot 9 for 20 from the charity stripe, and the game marked their first time shooting below 50 percent from the free-throw line all season. These types of numbers will not help you win games, and all the great teams are good at free throw shooting. The Cards are not this bad at free throw shooting and they will have an opportunity to prove it against FSU. The Seminoles tend to get called for a significant number of fouls.

Louisville should try their best to get some of Florida State’s key players into foul trouble, as well as just going into the game with the mindset of drawing fouls to get to the charity stripe. Florida State commits around 17.1 fouls per game and opposing teams attempt around 19.4 free throws per game against them. Key players who are prone to foul trouble for FSU are forward Raiquan Gray, guard M.J. Walker, and center Balsa Koprivica. This season, Louisville has shot 72.2 percent from the free-throw line as a team, and they are looking to improve upon that number.

Avoid turnovers against the stingy Seminoles defense

This will always be a key to winning basketball games for Louisville, but it’ll be even more important to avoid turning the basketball over against Florida State. The Seminoles pride themselves on their ability to force their opponents into loads of turnovers. They force around 18.6 turnovers per game, which is the 6th most in the entire country. They rank 8th in steals per game, averaging around 9.7. They also rank 13th in blocks per game, swatting around 5.6 shots on a nightly basis. Louisville hasn’t been too turnover prone (besides the Texas Tech loss), as they average 12.4 turnovers per game, which ranks as the 84th best in the nation.

Florida State has a backcourt that is capable of disrupting Louisville’s guard play, similar to Kentucky. Trent Forrest and Devin Vassell are two of the better defensive guards in the ACC, and they’ll be trying to bother the Cardinals guards all game long. Alongside that, the Seminoles do a great job of affecting the paint scoring efficiency of their opponent with the length of their shot blockers. Louisville will face a tough challenge inside as they try to attack the center of the Florida State defense.

Control the glass

Similar to how avoiding turnovers is often a key part of the recipe to win basketball games, rebounding also falls into this category. The Cards have proven themselves to be fundamentally sound in terms of rebounding the basketball after enduring a tough start to the year in that area. Florida State, while solid at rebounding, only averages 34.1 rebounds per game. That gives the Cards a big advantage on paper, as Louisville averages 40 rebounds per game, which is the 88th most in the nation.

It wouldn’t be totally surprising to see Florida State rebound well against Louisville, as we’ve seen the Cards struggle to control the glass against less talented teams earlier this season. Louisville cannot allow the Seminoles to get offensive rebounds and create second-chance opportunities, as they eventually come back to bite you. We also know that the Cards are at their best when Dwayne Sutton, Steven Enoch, and Jordan Nwora are getting physical and rebounding the basketball, as it gives the offense second chance looks.

Predictions:

Louisville 73, Florida State 62.

• Cards connect on over 80% of their free-throws as a team.
• Cards turn the ball over less than 12 times.
• Jordan Nwora leads the team in scoring.