Louisville basketball: Bold predictions vs. Florida State

Louisville basketball tries to get back into rhythm on Saturday against a tough Florida State squad. Here are three bold predictions for the match-up.

Louisville basketball enters its contest vs Florida State on Saturday trying to shake off the bad vibes of their recent loss to rival Kentucky.

In order to do so, they will have to get past a tremendously talented Florida State team that has yet to lose to Chris Mack.

The second-year Cardinals head coach met with the media on Friday and described how his squad plans to turn the corner headed into conference play, where they are already 2-0 on the season.

"“Business as usual. We have to get better, but that wouldn’t be any different than the first week when we played Miami, Florida in week one. We were disappointed with the loss. We feel like we have to learn from it like we have to learn from wins. We felt like the game was right there for the taking, but you have to give Kentucky credit for making plays down the stretch that we didn’t.”"

Mack spoke highly of the Seminoles, citing what will be easily apparent to the eye when they tune in on Saturday: FSU’s distinct size advantage.

The Noles are young (they average 1.4 years of experience) but they are massive and they are talented.

It will have been 17 days since Louisville’s last victory over Miami of Ohio on December 18th, so regardless of the opponent ahead, Louisville is in desperate need of a victory.

Here are three bold predictions for the Cards vs Florida State.

Louisville gets to the line twice as often as FSU

It’s hard to look at these two teams and assess the game plan for Louisville to beat Florida State and it not be similar to their approach at Kentucky last Saturday.

State is long, athletic, and does a lot of things that are extremely difficult to prepare for.

What makes them so dangerous?

"“It comes down to a few factors,” Mack said Friday. “They have excellent, long, athletic athletes on the floor that play a style that’s all over the court.”“They don’t let you catch the ball where you want,” Mack continued. “They switch every screen on and off the ball. Leonard Hamilton’s teams play extremely hard on the defensive end. Players names change, faces change, but the identity doesn’t. When you think about Florida State’s team, you think about a team that presses, that denies, that tries to rattle the opponent.”"

On the other side of things, Louisville has to find a way to navigate the Noles offensively. The first way that the Cardinals surged to a lead in Tallahassee last season was the penetration and play-making of Christen Cunningham.

Cunningham was able to spread the floor and get to the basket consistently last season and that translated to lay-ups and trips to the free-throw line.

The same strategy is likely to be employed this year with point guard Fresh Kimble. Though he is likely to come off the bench, Kimble was a spark plug that ignited multiple runs for Louisville against Kentucky, and he scored multiple crucial buckets at the right time.

In an offense that is desperate for another consistent scorer outside of Jordan Nwora and Steven Enoch, Kimble could be the answer.

Fresh Kimble accounts for double-digit points, at least five assists

Kimble’s penetration is what is ultimately going to lead to some spacing and freedom for Louisville on offense.

The Cards have a ton of options and plenty of play-makers, but if the offense remains stagnant, then we are going to see a lot more games where Nwora, Ryan McMahon, and Darius Perry are forced into taking tough, contested shots.

Kimble is the key that unlocks a ton of what Louisville wants to do on offense and defense.

"“I thought he stepped up,” Mack said of Kimble’s play last week. “I thought he had his biggest game of the year in the toughest environment that we’ve faced. It’s what you come to expect from a guy who’s been in college basketball for five years. As good as he was on the offensive end- people tend to point to an offensive performance- I thought he was equally as impressive and aggressive on the defensive end.”"

If the Cards want to bounce back against FSU, Mack’s best bet feels like an increased role from Kimble.

"“I do think we have even more confidence in him than we’ve had in the past, so I could see his role expanding, but we still have other talented guards that I want to keep on the floor as well.”"

Look for Louisville to come in with a similar game plan from last year, and look for FSU to try to counter by continuing to switch on screens like they’ve done all year. If Louisville continues to move the ball well, they will create mismatches and I believe Kimble can take advantage of that and get into the lane and distribute.

Ryan Mcmahon scores in double figures

One benefactor of Kimble’s increased role could be Ryan McMahon. Though Kimble getting more minutes means that McMahon, Perry, and Johnson see fewer minutes, it also means that McMahon will have the same opportunities he had against Kentucky to put the ball in the basket.

Just like so many times in the past, Louisville players were uncharacteristically off the mark against UK, and McMahon was a part of Louisville’s poor shooting night- even from the free-throw line.

In a home game with a back against the wall sort of feeling, the Cards are going to come in focused, and I look at McMahon to be a huge spark with his shooting range.

Louisville will be looking to spread the floor and stretch the defense, and if Kimble and Perry are getting into the lane, that is going to give McMahon ample opportunity to catch fire from long range.