Louisville basketball: 3 bold predictions for Cards vs. Clemson

Louisville basketball will go head-to-head with upset-minded Clemson on Saturday. We give three bold predictions for the Cards.

Louisville basketball will look to make it six wins in a row as they host Clemson in an ACC matchup on Saturday afternoon. Not only are both squads coming off of nail-biting victories earlier this week, but both are also the last two teams to hand the Duke Blue Devils a loss.

The Tigers (10-8 overall, 4-4 ACC) snuck past Wake Forest 71-68 on Tuesday behind a career-high 21 points from Hunter Tyson, and have been trending upwards after winning four of their last five games. The Cards (16-3 overall, 7-1 ACC) rallied and then hung on to beat Georgia Tech on Wednesday evening thanks to Malik Williams’ 13 points and six boards, as well as two clutch free throws late with seven seconds left to seal the win.

“I said back in the preseason before ACC Media Day that I think they have a great chance, I would actually be surprised if they don’t get to Atlanta”, Georgia Tech Josh Pastner said in regards to the Cards.

“I think they’re a really good basketball team and they’re very, very well-coached. I think Coach Mack is one of the best coaches in the country, both offensively and defensively.”

While the same can’t be said for on the football field, since joining the ACC in 2014, the Cards own a 3-2 advantage in the series on the court versus Clemson. Louisville leads the all-time series 6-2, including last year’s heart-stopping 56-55 win where the Cards nearly blew a 7-point lead with only 17 seconds left. Chris Mack and the Cards will look to put together a full 40 minutes in hopes for ACC win number eight on the year inside the KFC Yum! Center on Saturday. Here are 3 bold predictions for Louisville’s game against Clemson.

Bold prediction no. 1: Jordan Nwora scores 25+ Points

After scoring 20 or more points in eight of Louisville’s first 12 games, the Preseason ACC Player of the Year has cooled off as of late. Against Duke, Nwora scored six points on 3/12 shooting from the field and went 0/3 from behind the arc. On Wednesday, he scored just 10 points against the 122nd ranked defense nationally in opponents PPG in Georgia Tech. Here are Nwora’s shooting numbers from the last 5 games:

vs. Miami – 6/12 FG – 50%

at Notre Dame – 7/15 FG – 46%

at Pittsburgh – 5/13 FG – 38%

at Duke – 3/12 FG – 25%

vs Georgia Tech – 3/11 FG – 27%

It’s worth noting that when Nwora is struggling scoring the ball, he makes up for it by being active on defense and crashing the glass. While he hasn’t exploded offensively in the last two games, he grabbed eight boards against Duke and seven versus the Yellow Jackets.

Since he is at the top of every opponent’s scouting report, Nwora can also provide as a decoy on offense and let his teammates spread the floor and focus on their 1-on-1 matchups. With the emergence of David Johnson and Malik Williams, Jordan hasn’t had to do as much offensively as he did in the non-conference. However, look for the junior out of Buffalo to shake off of his mini four-game slump and breakout for a big-time offensive performance versus the Tigers.

Bold prediction no . 2 – Louisville out-rebounds Clemson

A major advantage for Louisville on Saturday, at least on paper, will be the offensive and defensive glass. Here’s a deeper look at the rebounding stats on the season from the two teams:

Total rebounds per game – UofL: 39.5, Clemson: 34.4

Offensive rebounding percentage – UofL: 32 percent, Clemson: 22.3 percent

Offensive rebounds per game – UofL: 10.2, Clemson: 7.2

Defensive rebounds per game – UofL: 27.4, Clemson: 24.4

Furthermore, Clemson is one of the shortest teams in the ACC, as their two interior players in Hunter Tyson and Aamir Simms stand at just 6’8″ tall. There’s no excuse for Steven Enoch, Jordan Nwora, Dwayne Sutton and Malik Williams (if healthy), to record double-figure rebounds against a team with a little-to-zero inside presence.

The Tigers rank 216th nationally in total rebounds and 150th nationally in allowing their opponents to grab 35.0 RPG. If the Cards take care of the glass and limit 2nd-chance opportunities for Brad Brownell’s team, they should have no trouble taming the Tigers on Saturday.

Bold prediction no. 3 – Louisville holds Clemson under 65 Points

Throughout this season, when the offense hadn’t been clicking and all the momentum in the world seemed to be shifting to the opponent, Louisville has had to rely on their length and aggressiveness on defense to grind out a win. And that is a very positive sign for a team with championship aspirations because quite frankly, teams are going to take away your best player on offense and there are going to be nights when shots don’t seem to be falling. Here’s a quick look at Louisville’s defensive statistics nationally:

Opposing effective FG percentage – 43.0 percent (9th)

Opposing 3-point percentage – 29.2 percent (22nd)

Opposing 2-point percentage – 42.5 percent (14th)

Opposing shooting percentage – 37.2 (7th)

Opposing shooting efficiency – 0.938 (10th)

The Cards defense has been top’s in the nation all season long, but has really progressed thanks to the play of junior big man Malik Williams. After the Georgia Tech win, Mack had some high praise for Williams:

“I feel like a broken record. He’s one of the best defensive players in the league. He made some big plays offensively and made some big free throws, some really big free throws. Defensively, his greatest attribute is his mind. He sees things develop. He certainly has great versatility.

I could put him on a guard and switch ball screens at the end, they just didn’t happen to use any so he was never on [Jose] Alvarado or [Michael] Devoe but I think he would’ve done the job. His versatility and his mind and his length and his toughness and desire make him a terrific defender. If we didn’t have him, we wouldn’t be a very good defensive team, or at least as good as we are.”

In four of their last five losses, the Tigers have failed to score at least 60 points, including just a 45-point performance at home against Yale in late December. They rank outside the top 100 nationally in almost every shooting/offensive efficiency statistic and rank 209th in 68.6 PPG.

On the other hand, Louisville is only allowing 62.3 PPG, which puts them at 30th nationally. Expect a tough shooting day for Clemson against a stout Cardinal defense looking to shape into form heading down the stretch into February and March.

The Cards will hold the Tigers under 65 points in what always seems to be a defensive battle between these two programs.