Louisville basketball: 3 locks and 3 bold predictions vs. Wake Forest

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LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY – JANUARY 22: Darius Perry #2 of the Louisville Cardinals shoots the ball against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at KFC YUM! Center on January 22, 2020 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

Lock: Louisville stays under 12 turnovers

While the win was great on Saturday against North Carolina State, the Cards’ inability to take care of the basketball was not pretty. The first half especially was brutal to watch as just about every player on the floor for Louisville threw half-hearted passes that most of the time didn’t make it to its intended target, frustrating the already hair-less Chris Mack on the sideline.

Against Wake Forest, I expect Louisville to play arguably their best game when it comes to keeping ahold of the ball and not giving a fairly bad defensive team the ability to change the game. If you’ve watched the Demon Decs this season (if you have God bless you) then you’ve probably seen that they aren’t good when it comes to forcing turnovers.

Chris Mack on the offense: We’re scoring well, but we’re turning it over too much lately. We’re focusing on it in practice. Just need to be more patient and take what the defense gives us.
— Lucas Aulbach (@LucasAulbach) February 4, 2020

Wake Forest currently ranks 322nd in the nation (out of 350 teams) in turnovers forced, averaging just 11.29 turnovers per game. With the Decs mostly playing a matchup 2-3 zone, they prioritize stopping dribble penetration and three-point shooting rather than getting in passing lanes or being overly assertive looking for steals.

If Louisville plays their game and cleans up a lot of the silly and sloppy mistakes that we saw against North Carolina State (18 total turnovers), I think not only will this game be completely out of hand by the second half, but Louisville will stay under the Wake Forest season average of 12 turnovers per game.

Wake Forest plays an extremely frenetic pace, which could cause problems for a Louisville team that likes to take their time offensively and play in the half-court, but with the lack of athletes and overall defensive weapons to hang with the guards, I think this should be a game where the Cards dictate the tempo.

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