Stats don’t lie: Louisville basketball one of five teams capable of winning it all

Just missing the cut

For those teams that make the cut, they again meet the strict criterium of being in the top 20 on both offense and defense according to Pomeroy’s ratings. However, there are some pretty big fish sitting just on the outside looking in.

This is important to note because teams like Michigan State and Louisville could easily fall off while these squads could assume a position in the 20-20 club.

Keep in mind as well that these teams will undoubtedly be right in the thick of things come season’s end. Remember, Texas Tech was in the final game last year thanks to their No. 1 overall rated defense, and Auburn was a great offensive team who got hot at just the right time. In the big dance, anything is possible.

Baylor

Adjust O: 22 | Adjusted D: 4

Easily the most likely team to make the cut by season’s end, Baylor is going to be a problem for whoever has to face them in the NCAA tournament.

One could argue that Baylor is similar to Virginia in 2019 in a way because of its slower tempo and vaunted defense. The bears have reeled off 19 straight wins on the back of outstanding defense and efficient offensive possessions.

The Bears are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, and their stifling tempo combined with second-chance opportunities has them in a great position to win the Big XII.

Gonzaga

Adjusted O: 2 | Adjusted D: 40

Gonzaga will always be the team that is going to sneak up on fans in the NCAA tournament because of how little those who frequently watch college basketball get to see the Bulldogs.

They are in a non-power conference that often plays games well after die-hards have gone to sleep, and their greatness can sometimes be overlooked.

But here they are, yet again, one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country, with no future opponent in sight that appears capable of taking them down. The Bulldogs are led by Filip Petrusev and Kilian Tille upfront, and with true freshman Drew Timme joining the fold this season, they have an unstoppable force down low.

The Zags play a pretty loose style and lead the nation in scoring, but they are vulnerable defensively, which could ultimately be to their demise when everyone’s legs are fresh in the NCAA tournament.

Dayton

Adjusted O: 1 | Adjusted D: 58

If you haven’t heard the name Obi Toppin, you are missing out on one of college basketball’s elite players in 2020. The 6’9,” do-it-all sophomore is a certified bucket-getter and one of the leaders in the player of the year race.

His Dayton squad boasts early wins over Georgia and Virginia Tech and gave Kansas and Colorado all they could handle.

Look Dayton to be that three or four seed that no team in the country is going to want to see in its region.

West Virginia

Adjusted O: 42 | Adjusted D: 2

“Press Virginia” is probably the most electric defense in the country. Over the last five years, Bob Huggins has begun to fully understand the benefits of having a stable of small, quick guards who can wear the hell out of you by the end of the game.

The Mountaineers have been lackluster in the first halves of a lot of games and allowed the opponent to hang around regardless of quality. Still, they have been able to string together runs and put away games late, and that makes for an extremely dangerous squad as the season draws to a close.

Ohio State

Adjusted O: 21 | Adjusted D: 21

Given their insanely ugly slide to start conference play, I am not entirely sure how Ohio State is still this high on the list. However, we aren’t here to judge the validity of the almighty KenPom.

They are currently sub-.500 in conference, but Ohio State still has the pieces to make a run in the tournament. Caleb Wesson is one of the best bigs in the country and the Buckeyes could definitely make some noise in a down year, even as a 6-10 seed.