Louisville basketball: 3 bold predictions vs. Virginia

Louisville will hold Mamadi Diakite, Jay Huff, and Braxton Key under combined point and rebound averages

One of the biggest areas of strength this season has been the production of the frontcourt from Mamadi Diakite, who like Jordan Nwora put the NBA Draft on hold for another year to return to the ACC, Jay Huff, and Braxton Key.

Together they combine to average 32.7 points per game and 20.6 rebounds, led by 13.5 points and seven rebounds per game from Diakite and 10.7 points and 7.4 rebounds from Key. The Virginia big men have been solid this season, but not great, as the team has had to lean on them for not only rebounding, interior defense but scoring at a level they probably aren’t ready to do at the highest level.

Over the last three games, the three bigs have been really good and it’s a big part as to why the Cavaliers have won over Wake Forest, Florida State, and Clemson. Against Clemson, the three combined for 42 points and 26 rebounds and still only won by six points against a team with one traditional big man in Aamir Simms.

After a poor showing (let’s be frank, it was) defensively against Wake Forest in the interior, I expect the Cards to bounce back in a major way. Led by Malik Williams, who time and time again was ripped by Dan Dakich of ESPN for his lack of defensive impact against Olivier Sarr, Steven Enoch, Jordan Nwora, and Dwayne Sutton, Louisville will have a variety of defenders to throw at the three big men both inside and outside.

Look for Louisville to take advantage of Diakite’s struggles against double-teams, especially considering Virginia’s inability to hit from deep lately, and force him to either make a pass or take a bad shot.

Virginia has had Louisville’s number over the last few years and part of that has been the ability of the frontcourt to find themselves with good shots around the rim whether it be on post feeds or from attacking the glass. This season Louisville will have to play with even more defensive intensity than they did during the second half come back against Wake Forest and they’ll have to absolutely own the glass and prevent second-chance points around the rim from offensive rebounds.

Chris Mack has to preach to his defense to be aggressive, smart, attack the glass collectively, and to communicate against a team that is not going to beat themselves on too many occasions. Teams with way less size and talent have had success limiting Virginia and there’s absolutely no reason why Louisville shouldn’t be able to replicate that success.