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Louisville basketball: How FSU loss effects NCAA tournament seeding for Cards

By Presley Meyer

LOUISVILLE, KY - FEBRUARY 19: Jordan Nwora #33 of the Louisville Cardinals celebrates with David Johnson #13 and Dwayne Sutton #24 after hitting a three-point shot against the Syracuse Orange in the first half of a game at KFC YUM! Center on February 19, 2020 in Louisville, Kentucky. Louisville defeated Syracuse 90-66. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
LOUISVILLE, KY - FEBRUARY 19: Jordan Nwora #33 of the Louisville Cardinals celebrates with David Johnson #13 and Dwayne Sutton #24 after hitting a three-point shot against the Syracuse Orange in the first half of a game at KFC YUM! Center on February 19, 2020 in Louisville, Kentucky. Louisville defeated Syracuse 90-66. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /
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Louisville basketball just dropped its second game of the season against Florida State, but the Cards are still in great shape to get a high seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Selection Sunday is on March 15th, which means for Chris Mack and Louisville basketball, the season is winding to a close and the Cards will soon find out their seeding in the big dance.

Let’s take a look at some of the key storylines heading into the final weeks of the regular season.

Louisville is still a lock to secure a double-bye

Even if Louisville drops its next two games, the Cardinals have already secured a double-bye in the ACC tournament.

The Cardinals are a game back of Florida State and Duke, but they are still three wins and a loss ahead of Virginia.

That means that the worst-case scenario at the moment is a four-seed in the ACC tournament, which would take Virginia winning its last four games and the Cardinals dropping their final two.

But the Cards need the next two wins

Still, we don’t want to see Louisville basketball enter the postseason on a three-game losing streak, which would mean that they had lost 5 out of their last 7.

Louisville’s next match-up against Virginia Tech is crucial. If the Cards can secure a victory there, then it would build momentum going into the season finale at Virginia.

The Hokies have gone cold as of late, dropping 7 of their last 8- including two apiece to Miami and Boston College. The Cards will look to close the season with only one home loss by taking care of business against a team that they should handle easily.

Louisville has six days to prepare for Tech, and then six more to get ready for a road test at Virginia. A season sweep of the Cavs would be a massive confidence booster after dropping the last three on the road and nine straight to UVA prior to this season.

Needless to say, if Louisville handles business in the last two, tension around the city is likely to settle down.

Louisville can lock up a three seed with two wins, and there’s still an outside chance the Cards get a two or a one depending on how Duke and FSU finish the season.

Current projections

Here’s where the Cards land on each of the projections we used two weeks ago:

CBS Sports has Louisville as a 3-seed in the South

Bracketville has Louisville as a 3-seed out west

And USA Today pegs Louisville as a 4-seed in the East

What about the NET?

Interestingly enough, the NET rankings factor in tough road games more heavily than almost any other metric. With that being the case, the Cards still sit at No. 7 in the NET, and they have a chance to snag an all-important 5th quadrant one win when they conclude the season at Virginia.

That would actually land the Cardinals as the third-best two seed in the tournament right now. Not shabby.

Worst-case NCAA tournament scenario

At this point, Louisville’s very worst-case scenario would be dropping its final two games and losing in the first round of the ACC tournament.

Aside from being a total nuclear situation after finishing in similar fashion last season, Louisville would go down a seed line or two.

Worst case, the Cards are a 6 or 7 seed in the West.

Best-case NCAA tournament scenario

The best-case scenario is obviously Louisville winning its final two and then winning three straight in the ACC tournament.

That would give Louisville at least three more quadrant one wins and would probably lock them in for a two seed.

I think two seed is the ceiling and six is the worst for the Cards.

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