Louisville basketball: How Virginia game can impact Cards’ seeding
Louisville basketball enters its season finale against Virginia controlling its own destiny. What a win- and a loss- on Saturday would mean.
Look at us. Who would’ve thought? Heading into its season finale in Charlottesville, Virginia on Saturday, Louisville basketball faces an uphill battle in a game with much more serious implications than we ever could have imagined a month ago.
On February 8th, most Louisville basketball fans were skeptical of what kind of success the Cards could have against a UVA team battling to make the NCAA tournament. However, the results of the game itself were pretty surprising as Louisville won wire-to-wire in a shockingly up-and-down game.
Virginia has that slow it down, grind it out style of play, but Louisville’s offensive efficiency forced Tony Bennett and the Cavs to play quick, and some bonkers second-half shooting kept them in it until the end.
It was back to the drawing board for the Cavaliers, however, after the loss to Louisville effectively put them out of the tournament. The results of their refocusing on defense have been eye-opening.
Not only has Virginia won every game since their loss to the Cards, but they have done so their way. They’ve held five of seven opponents below 60 and two below 50. They forced Duke to play its lowest-scoring game of the season and made solid offensive teams look inept.
We know what the Cavs can bring to the table, and in a game where the winner will stake a claim as an ACC regular-season co-champ- or a chance at an outright champ in Louisville’s case- there are no more excuses.
Louisville is going to be playing with its back against the wall as they are likely without center and captain Malik Williams in a raucous road environment.
A lot can happen this weekend to impact tournament seeding. Let’s take a look at some key games to watch and the implications for this game between Louisville and Virginia.
Games to watch this weekend that could have an impact on Louisville
- No. 8 Seton Hall vs. No. 11 Creighton
- North Carolina vs. No. 12 Duke
- Boston College vs. No. 7 Florida State
- George Washington vs. No. 3 Dayton
- No. 14 Villanova vs. Georgetown
- No. 25 Michigan vs. No. 9 Maryland
With a Louisville basketball loss
Firstly, with a loss, the Cardinals don’t win the regular-season conference title, and they most likely drop to a two seed in the conference tournament.
That, right there, is incentive enough for the Cards to get the job done on Saturday.
I also believe, with a loss, Louisville is one more loss away from dropping to the four seed line. As it stands, the game against Virginia will be a quad one win or loss, and that doesn’t appear to have enough legs to change prior to season’s end. That means, as far as the NET rankings go, Louisville can only stand a lot to gain with a win or a little to gain with a loss.
However, if you look at the NET rankings, there are a ton of teams like BYU, Villanova, Florida State, and Seton Hall who have more quadrant one wins than the Cards.
The NET rankings, where Louisville currently sits at 8th, are a factor, but not the end-all, be-all for the selection committee.
The committee is going to look at the strength of schedule, strength of record, and how many quality wins the Cards have, and there is not a ton on their resume compared to other teams battling for a top seed.
Right now, Louisville is more dependant on Georgia Tech and Clemson being quad one losses than they are hanging their hats on wins over Michigan, Duke, and Virginia- which is never fun.
Louisville needs a win on Saturday to really bolster its resume with another quad one win. Their opportunities for big wins have been limited this season, and the Cards cannot let this one slip by.
With a loss, Louisville is probably on the three seed line, with little chance of grabbing a two, and a first-game loss in the ACC tournament from a four seed.
With a Louisville basketball win
With a win, Louisville wins at least a share of the ACC regular-season title, secures either a one or two seed in the ACC tournament and the Cards have control of their own destiny.
If Louisville gets a W against Virginia, the Cards will officially have enough quadrant one victories to comfortably sit on the two-seed line.
A one-seed seems out of the question at this point, even if the Cards win against UVA and then win the ACC tournament. However, maintaining a two-seed is as simple as winning at Virginia, and then winning its first game in the ACC tournament.
If the Cards snag a victory in Charlottesville, all of a sudden a season that has been extremely up and down for Cards fans is right back on course.
Next. Louisville basketball's top five targets for the class of 2021. dark
The Cards have won two national titles as a two seed, and this year they can lock themselves in for another legitimate run at a title by positioning themselves on the two line once again.