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Probabilities for each Louisville basketball player’s return next season

By Jacob Lane

CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA - MARCH 07: David Johnson #13 of the Louisville Cardinals dribbles in the first half during a game against the Virginia Cavaliers at John Paul Jones Arena on March 7, 2020 in Charlottesville, Virginia. (Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images)
CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA - MARCH 07: David Johnson #13 of the Louisville Cardinals dribbles in the first half during a game against the Virginia Cavaliers at John Paul Jones Arena on March 7, 2020 in Charlottesville, Virginia. (Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images) /
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MIAMI, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 05: Josh Nickelberry #20 of the Louisville Cardinals warms up prior to the game against the Miami Hurricanes at Watsco Center on November 05, 2019 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 05: Josh Nickelberry #20 of the Louisville Cardinals warms up prior to the game against the Miami Hurricanes at Watsco Center on November 05, 2019 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

Josh Nickelberry

Guard – Sophomore

Probability to return: 90 percent

The first of the Super Six to commit to Louisville, Josh Nickelberry much like others before him in this article, was confined to mostly a bench role in his first season.

Even with his ability to score the basketball at an elite level, Nickelberry took on a development role as a freshman appearing in just 15 games and averaging less than a point per game. There wasn’t much opportunity playing behind guys like Fresh Kimble, Darius Perry, and Ryan McMahon, but the injuries Nickelberry dealt with throughout the season were what really limited his growth down the stretch.

As I detailed in my first preview piece for 2021, Nickelberry is set to take on a big role next season as the Cards will return only one other guard in David Johnson. The stage is set for Nickelberry to take the biggest step from year one to year two and develop into a consistent starter next to Johnson.

Nickelberry’s strengths lie on the offensive end of the floor as a primary scorer off the ball, a role he should develop nicely into next season. That’s why I don’t see any scenario where he decides to transfer. However, you can’t ever say never considering the climate we’re in today in college basketball and a potential rule change restricting transfers coming down the pipe.

Regardless, I would be more than shocked if the sophomore to be guard decided to leave Louisville considering he may have more to gain than anyone on the roster in 2020.

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