Louisville basketball: Way too early bold predictions for 2020-21

Jay Scrubb actually ends up suiting up for the Cardinals

During some uncertain times, Louisville basketball is perhaps the most uncertain about what its 2020-21 roster will look like.

As of the first week of April, the Cards only have seven players on the current roster. Louisville will add a class of JJ Traynor and D’Andre Davis this fall, which will bring the team up to nine. Outside of that, the rest of the roster is a bit of a mystery.

Louisville native and the top JUCO player in the 2020 class, Jay Scrubb, is signed with the Cardinals. However, Scrubb actually ending up in a Louisville uniform this season feels more and more far-fetched each day.

What began as Scrubb being virtually all-in as a Card has grown into him finding nearly every reason in the book not to attend college in 2020. First, it felt like Scrubb was a lottery or top 20 pick or he was going to go to school, then it was anywhere in the first round, and now it feels like if Scrubb is promised he will go anywhere in the two rounds of the NBA draft he will go.

Look. I 100 percent understand Scrubb’s dilemma. He went to college for two years, he’s dominated on the court, he got his grades in order, he grew into his frame in the weight room, he expanded his repertoire. For Scrubb, it’s now about trying to find a spot as a professional basketball player and strike while the iron is hot. This is a historically weak draft class, especially on the back end, and all he needs is to get one team to promise they will take him and he has his foot in the door.

However, circumstantially, Scrubb may be in the worst possible draft class for a JUCO player to try and make the jump straight to the league. As we’ve detailed here, it’s virtually unheard of for a Junior College guy to go straight to the league. The competition in JUCO is questionable at best and teams, scouts, and coaches want to see what Scrubb can do against solid competition before risking tons of money and one of their only draft picks on anything that’s an uncertainty.

That’s not to say that Scrubb can’t break down barriers and be one of the first JUCO players to successfully make the jump- if there’s anyone that could do it, Scrubb seems like he has the talent to do so.

Ultimately, it just feels like Scrubb isn’t going to get the opportunities to really showcase his skills. He can’t work out in front of scouts, and if he did so via creative avenues like facetime, Skype, etc,, he couldn’t work out with other players trying to get into the league. That’s where I believe Scrubb ultimately has issues.

In any other year, I believe Scrubb would seize the opportunity and bolt for the draft, and I would not blame him for a second. However, this season, he is looking at a mid-to-late second-round pick and a two-way contract at best. That kind of money probably isn’t what Scrubb is looking for, and digging yourself out of the proverbial G League hole is not an easy road.

Instead, I believe Scrubb opts to explore his options with an agent but ultimately wait one more year. At Louisville, he would have all the resources he needs to showcase his skillset against top talent, build his brand, and then work his way into a lottery pick next season.

At the moment, it feels like Scrubb is a 25 percent chance to actually be a Cardinal, but don’t lose hope yet if you’re a Cards fan who hopes to see him on campus. There is still a lot to play out, and I believe Scrubb winds up on campus when all is said and done.