Analytics peg Louisville football as one of top offenses in the country

ESPN’s preseason FPI rankings are out, and Louisville football took a massive leap from the end of last season. Why the analytics are so high on the Cardinals.

More than six weeks removed from anything really resembling live sports, Louisville football fans would be glad to hear almost any news about their team.

Let us be the bearers of very good news if you’re a Cards fan curious about how your team is going to fair on the heels of a remarkable first year under head coach Scott Satterfield.

One of the better indicators of how teams could fare down the line is ESPN’s Football Power Index or FPI.

"” The ultimate goal of FPI,” explains ESPN Sports Analytics “is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”"

However, after seven years of observation, the guys and gals behind the FPI have made some important changes heading into the 2020 season.

Earlier this week, our own Dalton Pence broke down exactly what the changes look like and how they impact Louisville football specifically this year.

"“The Football Power Index takes many different factors into consideration such as key returners, the margin of victory from the previous season, recruiting, etc. Outside of road games at Clemson (6.1 percent chance to win) and Notre Dame (34.6 percent), Louisville is favored to win every contest on the schedule. The Cardinals are set to have over 70 percent win probabilities against NC State, Murray State, Western Kentucky, Syracuse, and Wake Forest. The lowest-win probability falls on Halloween when Louisville is set to host Virginia Tech (57 percent).”"

What’s more, ESPN’s new updates are specifically high on Louisville’s offense. If you’re a Cardinals fan, perhaps you already know why, but let’s hear what Seth Walder of ESPN Analytics had to say about why Louisville’s offense is so high in the rankings:

"“While the changes are minor for most teams, for a few they are significant. Louisville is one of those teams and a good example to illustrate what these changes look like.”“Last season, the Cardinals started the season with Jawon Pass at quarterback. He played a couple of games before suffering a season-ending injury. Micale Cunningham took over and played most of the rest of the season, but Evan Conley worked in some time as well. But with Cunningham, Louisville was at its best, and he’s the presumed starter heading into 2020. Our old FPI would not know the difference between the 2019 offense under each of the three quarterbacks, but the new version does. And so it’s more optimistic about the Louisville offense because it’s thinking it likely will be the one with Cunningham at the helm, rather than a mix of the three.”“And by the way, FPI is awfully high on Louisville’s offense, pegging it as fourth-best in the country. That’s a bright spot for an ACC that is expected to be dominated by Clemson.”"

To recap:

• ESPN FPI ranks Louisville No. 20 in the country
• FPI thinks Louisville has the fourth-best returning offense in all of college football
• The FPI projections have Louisville favored in all but two games

That’s a lot to process for a team and fanbase that, this time last year, would have been giddy at the thought of an appearance in a bowl game. Now we are talking New Years Six Bowl territory.

So, is there merit to these rankings- The same ones that pegged the Cards as the worst power five team in the land this time last year? Bias aside… Perhaps.

Aside from all of the points that were made above about returning production and how high the metrics are on Cunningham and Hawkins, the fact remains that this is Louisville’s first offseason filled with continuity in more than five years. Every year since 2014, Louisville has lost at least one coordinator or transitioned to a different head coach. That is not the case in 2020. Defensive coordinators Bryan Brown and Cort Dennison are both in the fold, offensive coordinator Dwayne Ledford returns, and every position coach outside of linebackers remains intact. From the outside, that may not seem important, but in an offseason where the Cardinals are riding high, knowing the expectations day in and day out is a big deal.

The Cardinals had one of the more electric offenses in the country last season, and the coaching staff has remained adamant that there are still a lot of pages to cover in its playbook. The 2019 Cardinals were focused heavily in the passing game across the middle, which explains why Marshon Ford and Tutu Atwell were so heavily relied upon. While the slot guys will key the offense again, new wrinkles like out routes and more plays down the sideline to Dez Fitzpatrick or Christian Fitzpatrick will become more prominent. While running backs were almost exclusively in pass protection or getting downhill in a hurry last season, look for both Hawkins and Hassan Hall to become much more active as pass catchers out of the backfield.

The No. 4 offense is just getting started, and Louisville is finally adding some defensive pieces as well. After a season where the Louisville pass rush largely consisted of the linebacking core, Tabarius Peterson, Derek Dorsey, Yaya Diaby, Ja’Darien Boykin, Jared Goldwire, and Henry Bryant should highlight a defensive line that is ready to make a leap in year two.

The Cardinals are good by the numbers, but what will keep things moving in 2020 is the continuity, consistency, and growth of the coaching staff and the key players that made things so exciting in year one of the Satterfield era.

If Louisville continues that growth, ESPN’s FPI numbers may not be too far from reality in 2020.