Louisville football: What worries me most about Florida State

Florida State’s third down defense is clicking

Going up against the man many have declared as the second best quarterback in the ACC, Sam Howell, Florida State’s defense gave up over 500 yards of defense but came up with big plays just enough times to squeak out a win.

Just about every stat from that game would lead you to believe that Florida State should’ve walked away with a loss, except for one that matters a ton. That was third down (and fourth down) efficiency on the defensive side of the ball.

Despite doing literally everything right on first and second down in this game, North Carolina was only able to pick up conversions on two of their 12 third down attempts, resulting in four straight punts to open the game, a pick six, a sack, and multiple drives ending on failed fourth down attempts.

You can call it bend but don’t break or coming up with a big play when it matters most, but you can’t call it losing football. Giving up 500 yards is never a good thing, but when you force five incompletions, a turnover leading to a TD, and a sack, that’s the recipe for winning a game.

Last week wasn’t an anomaly either. Despite losing to Notre Dame the previous week, the Seminoles were able to force Brian Kelly’s offense into five third down failures while only allowing Jacksonville State to convert three times on 10 attempts the week prior. That means in a three week stretch, FSU’s defense allowed seven third down conversions out of 35 attempts.

Louisville has been atrocious on third down offensively throughout the season, mostly because of their inability to get ahead of the sticks on first and second down. While UNC consistently was able to pick up first downs on first and second down, they were initially shut down on third down in both short and long scenarios.

If they continue to put themselves in similar situations to what they did against Notre Dame, where they went 3 for 9 on third down and were forced into playing behind the sticks in six out of seven total drives, they’ll have the edge on winning. Plain and simple.

Taking an offensive third down conversion rate of 38 percent into battle against a team that has been nothing short of dominant on that down, would make me a nervous wreck too if I was Scott Satterfield.