Is a divorce inevitable for Kenny Payne and the Louisville Cardinals?

Is Kenny Payne’s dismissal inevitable?

The calls to fire Kenny Payne are growing. After a twenty-point blowout defeat to the Pittsburgh Panthers and an embarrassing loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, where the Cardinals went down by thirty; Payne’s dismissal may be approaching. It’s beginning to appear inevitable. The unknown factor is when?

I was talking to a friend on Tuesday. He covers a rival ACC school, and his words hit home. How did a school like Louisville: with the resources, facilities, and finances, bungle this hire? In 2022, even with the pending NCAA probe into the program, the Louisville job was a top-ten coaching position in college basketball.

In 2018, the program lured Chris Mack away from his alma mater, Xavier University, where he was coming off debatably the most successful season ever for the Musketeers. He led the 2018 Xavier team to the school’s first No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament and an overall ranking of No. 3 in the AP poll.

Ignoring the propaganda, Chris Mack was successful at the University of Louisville. In 2019, Mack coached the Cardinals to a No. 1 ranking in college basketball. Suppose Dino Gaudio hadn’t attempted to extort Chris Mack, and Chris Mack hadn’t violated the school’s guidelines by recording conversations with him, there is a powerful argument Mack may have been coaching in 2023.

Louisville’s signature win this season has come over an 11-11 Western Kentucky team. And more importantly, Louisville’s 2022-2023 team will be remembered for the shocking 0-3 season start, with losses to Bellarmine, Wright State, and Appalachian State. No ACC team has gone winless in ACC play since the 2017-2018 season, when the Pittsburgh Panthers went 0-18 in the conference.

No one at the University of Louisville predicted the Louisville Cardinals basketball team, under first-year head coach Kenny Payne would be winless in ACC conference play and much less 2-19 overall. Unfortunately, outside of Louisville, voices were questioning the university’s decision to hire an untried coach.

Matt Norlander of CBS Sports released the Top 100 And 1 best teams heading into the 2022-23 season. In the article, Norlander ranked the Cardinals No. 100, and pointed out the potential problems at guard.

"“Guard play seems lacking and I’m afraid Louisville fans are going to have to endure big bumps in Kenny Payne’s first season. U of L’s best player will probably be either Tennessee 6-10 transfer Brandon Huntley-Hatfield or 6-9 returnee Jae’Lyn Withers. Cards do have size, at least.”"

It’s been difficult to be critical of Kenny Payne because Louisville fans love our alumni. And Kenny Payne is one of the most beloved Louisville Cardinals to play basketball at the University. Once a Card–always a Card. But it’s becoming increasingly apparent that players and sanctions aren’t the issues.

In the blowout loss to Pittsburgh, midway through the first half, Louisville kept the game close. Louisville’s zone defense kept the pace slow and the perimeter tight until they switched to man-to-man. Pittsburgh immediately went on a run, knocking down several threes from behind the arc. Notre Dame essentially copied and pasted Pittsburgh’s game plan, and many of the game’s runs came when the Cardinals went into man-to-man defense.

Kenny Payne’s Attendance Woes

It’s nearly February, and fans aren’t wrong. Louisville has yet to turn a corner. Kenny Payne’s call for “true fans” to continue to support the Louisville Cardinals has backfired and his message is a sharp contrast to former Louisville assistant and interim Head Coach Mike Pegues’ call last spring.

"“Our record is not a respectable Louisville basketball record. It is not. I am so grateful to our fans for showing up today. I would just beg them to stay with us. The kids need it.”  Mike Pegues – Jan. 2022"

Payne’s message:

"“I want true Louisville fans. I want a fan that understands that the reality of the situation. I know it’s impossible.  I want the fan, the true Louisville fan, the ones that truly know, that’s a part of the process of building something special.”“I said this from day one in my press conference that I’m watching this. See who’s gonna jump off the Titanic, I wasn’t joking. I knew it was gonna be hard to rebuild this thing. In no way am I discouraged about anything that I’ve been through, anything that we’ve done.”"

Kenny Payne needs to get it done. Fans are giving away tickets, and the KFC Yum! Center hasn’t been this empty since 2020, when COVID shut down the world. Top five-star recruits aren’t flocking to campus, as many would have hoped.

The University of Louisville’s board of trustees meets today to discuss a new name for the Football stadium, but one can’t stop and think if that’s all they will be discussing.

Next up for the Cardinals is their home matchup in the KFC Yum! Center Wednesday, February 1st, at 7 pm EST to face the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.

Louisville has lost ten games in a row and sit last in the ACC. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have lost seven in a row and are second to Louisville in the current ACC standings. If there was ever a game Louisville and Kenny Payne needed to win, this is it. We need this one.