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Duke vs. Louisville prediction, odds, trends and key players for College Football Week 9

By Reed Wallach

Oct 14, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Louisville Cardinals wide receiver Chris Bell (0) and quarterback Jack Plummer (13) react after combining for a seven yard touchdown pass against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 14, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Louisville Cardinals wide receiver Chris Bell (0) and quarterback Jack Plummer (13) react after combining for a seven yard touchdown pass against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /
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Louisville is fresh off a bye week with the ACC Championship game within reach.

Despite a loss to Pitt ahead of its off week, the Cardinals are firmly in the mix for an ACC title berth, but must get past Duke on Saturday in order to do that. The Blue Devils also have one loss in conference play and this game will help sort out the pecking order in the conference.

The biggest question for this one is on the Duke side as Riley Leonard left in the third quarter of his first game back from a high ankle sprain last week and the Blue Devils offense fell apart after that. Here’s the latest on the Duke quarterback. 

For more, here’s our full betting breakdown.

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Duke vs. Louisville Odds, Spread and Total

Louisville vs. Duke Betting Trends

  • Louisville is 3-3-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Duke is 4-3 ATS this season
  • Louisville has covered all three games at home this season
  • Duke is 1-2 ATS as an underdog
  • Duke has gone OVER in both road games
  • Louisville has gone OVER in three of four games as a favorite

Duke vs. Louisville How to Watch

Date: Saturday, October 28
Game Time: 3:30 PM EST
Venue: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Duke Record: 5-2
Louisville Record: 6-1

Duke vs. Louisville Key Players to Watch

Duke

Riley Leonard: All eyes will be on Leonard and his ankle. His mobility was limited against Florida State, but the Blue Devils defense helped the team get up early, including a pick-six. If Leonard is as hobbled as he was last week, or out at all, I expect the team to turtle on offense. Backup Henry Belin IV has only completed 13-of-26 passes in a start and second half action last week with an interception.

Louisville

Jack Plummer: We’ve seen good and bad from Plummer this season, but his goal is to minimize mistakes against a Duke defense that is adept at limiting explosive plays. The Cardinals offense is 49th in success rate on the year and Plummer is completing 64% of his passes, but he is putting the ball in harm’s way too often. He has 13 big time throws to 10 turnover worthy plays this season, according to Pro Football Focus. 

Duke vs. Louisville Prediction and Pick

A lot of this is going to come down to what kind of play we are getting from Leonard, but I’m going to handicap this game as if he’s playing, but not 100% still. The future NFL quarterback is going to need to be mobile because Louisville is stout against the run, allowing a shade over three yards per carry and has a nose for the ball, top 20 in the country in turnovers gained and havoc rate.

If the Cards are able to get into the backfield and put pressure on Leonard, it may be a long afternoon for the dual threat QB.

Louisville rates as the 15th best pass rush unit in the country according to PFF, and the Blue Devils offense was non-existent last week with a banged up Leonard. Considering he re-aggravated the injury and was pulled out of the game, I’m concerned how close he is to 100% come Saturday.

With that being said, the Duke defense remains one of the best in the ACC. The unit is top 20 in EPA/Play and is top 10 in points per drive allowed. My biggest issue with the team is the lack of pass rush. The team is right around the national average in terms of pass rush grading, per PFF, and I believe that will create opportunities for the Cardinals offense to generate scoring chances as the game wares on and the offense can’t sustain drives.

When Plummer has a clean pocket, he has been fantastic this season. He has completed more than 69% of his passes for 11 touchdowns while averaging 10 yards per pass attempt. He typically likes to work underneath anyway and I believe Louisville can stay on schedule to win with margin off the bye week.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed’s bets here!

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