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Where Does ESPN’s CFB Playoff Predictor Think Louisville Will Land?

By Caleb Hall

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 09: The College Football Playoff National Championship trophy is displayed on the field before the College Football Playoff National Championship game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the TCU Horned Frogs at SoFi Stadium on January 09, 2023 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 09: The College Football Playoff National Championship trophy is displayed on the field before the College Football Playoff National Championship game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the TCU Horned Frogs at SoFi Stadium on January 09, 2023 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images) /
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TALLAHASSEE, FL – OCTOBER 21: A general view on the rooftop of the fireworks inside of Doak Campbell Stadium on Bobby Bowden Field as the Florida State Seminoles enters the field to play against the Duke Blue Devils at Doak Campbell Stadium on October 21, 2023 in Tallahassee, Florida. (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)
TALLAHASSEE, FL – OCTOBER 21: A general view on the rooftop of the fireworks inside of Doak Campbell Stadium on Bobby Bowden Field as the Florida State Seminoles enters the field to play against the Duke Blue Devils at Doak Campbell Stadium on October 21, 2023 in Tallahassee, Florida. (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images) /

#4 Florida State:

I picked Florida State next since they are the direct competition in the ACC for the Cardinals. If FSU wins out and wins the ACC championship game they have a 99% chance to make the playoffs. However, if FSU wins out but loses in the ACC championship they fall down to a 26% chance to make the playoffs. That is still higher than the 24% chance Louisville would have if they win out and win the ACC.

Even if FSU loses a game in the regular season to Pitt, Miami, or Florida but win the ACC, they have a 56% chance of making the playoff.

Still the best spot for the Cards is for FSU to lose a regular season game and lose the ACC championship game. According to the tool, that would put them at a less than 1% chance of making it in. In all likelihood though FSU will be undefeated going into the championship game. Even if Louisville wins out completely, FSU still has a shot at the CFB playoff.

#5 Washington and #6 Oregon

Washington comes in at #5 in the rankings, and are just right outside looking into the top 4. 3 of the Huskies toughest games left are at USC, Utah, and at Oregon State. These are all currently top 20 teams and the Huskies will need to be on point to win them all. If Washington were to lose to USC but win the PAC-12 championship game, the tool gives them a 68% chance to make the playoff. That would not bode well for Louisville at all. However, if they lose to USC and lose the conference championship, the tool just gives them a 1% chance to make it.

Oregon is also a team look out for as well.If Oregon wins out and wins the PAC-12 championship they will have a 69% chance of making the playoff. If Oregon wins out but loses the PAC-12 championship then they will have a 1% chance of making the playoff. But, if Oregon loses the championship then that probably means Washington will have won the game, and then that thrusts the Huskies into the playoff.

What Louisville needs to hope for is for Oregon to lose to USC, and therefore send USC and Washington to the playoff where USC hopefully knock off Washington as well. USC still also has the ability to make the playoff, but at 2 losses already it looks unlikely. Even if they win out.

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