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Where Does ESPN’s CFB Playoff Predictor Think Louisville Will Land?

By Caleb Hall

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 09: The College Football Playoff National Championship trophy is displayed on the field before the College Football Playoff National Championship game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the TCU Horned Frogs at SoFi Stadium on January 09, 2023 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 09: The College Football Playoff National Championship trophy is displayed on the field before the College Football Playoff National Championship game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the TCU Horned Frogs at SoFi Stadium on January 09, 2023 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images) /
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MADISON, WISCONSIN – OCTOBER 28: Braedyn Locke #18 of the Wisconsin Badgers throws a pass during the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Camp Randall Stadium on October 28, 2023 in Madison, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
MADISON, WISCONSIN – OCTOBER 28: Braedyn Locke #18 of the Wisconsin Badgers throws a pass during the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Camp Randall Stadium on October 28, 2023 in Madison, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) /

#1 Ohio State and #3 Michigan:

Ohio State and Michigan are entangled when it comes to playoff rankings. Since they are in the same division and play each other the last week of the season, they can essentially knock eachother out of the BIG Ten championship game during that week.

If Ohio State loses to Michigan, and misses the BIG Ten championship, they have a 67% chance to make the playoff, and that is the worse case scenario. Ohio State won’t lose their other games to teams like Rutgers and Minnesota, so it is likely they will keep a spot in the top 4. Unless Ryan Day really pulls out all the bad coaching tricks he has up his sleeve.

Michigan is a different story however. If Michigan wins out and wins the BIG 10 championship then they will likely be a lock for the playoff at 99%. If Michigan loses to Ohio State and misses the conference championship game however, that will plummet them down to a 47% chance of making it in.

If Michigan loses to Penn State and Ohio State in the regular season, their chances would plummet straight to 1%. Michigan still has those 2 tough games ahead of them, so they are not out of the clear yet.

Louisville will need a miracle to get Ohio State out of the top 4, but if Michigan loses to Penn State and Ohio State, they could easily not make the CFB Playoff.

#4 Georgia and #8 Alabama

Georgia and Alabama are another duo of entangled teams that will be tough for Louisville to surpass. Georgia will face Ole Miss, Tennesse, and Missouri in the few coming weeks, and those will be 3 tough games for the Bulldogs. If Georgia loses to Tennesse or Ole Miss and loses the title game then they will drop to a 1% chance of making the playoff. If they win out and lose the title game to Alabama, then they will still be knocked down to a 34% chance to make it. If Georgia loses to Tennesse or Ole Miss but wins the SEC title, then they will have a 73% chance to make the CFB Playoff.

The only outlier for Georgia would be if they lose to Missouri and miss the title game if Missouri wins out. If that were to happen then they would have just a 6% chance. Georgia has somewhat of a tough road ahead, and if you’re a Louisville fan you will want them to just lose as much as possible.

Alabama’s only real clear road to the CFB playoff would be to win out and win the SEC title, which would put them at a 96% chance to make it in. All other outcomes would result the Tide to roll outside of Alabama’s direction.

Louisville’s best case scenario for these two teams is for Alabama to just lose one game, and for Georgia to lose 2 games overall.

Louisville has a 24% chance even if they win out the rest of the season. They will certainly need some help but the Cardinals certainly do have a shot to make the CFB Playoff. They just need some help from around the league, and when its college football anything can happen.

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