Louisville football hosts Bowling Green on Saturday at noon at the L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. The Cards enter the matchup 0-2 against the spread (ATS) and 1-1 on totals this season. Bowling Green, meanwhile, is 2-1 ATS and just 1-2 hitting the over. Oddsmakers have Louisville listed as a 26.5-point favorite with a total set at 52.5.
After two games, a few trends with this Louisville team have started to feel less like “one-offs” and more like early-season identities. That shapes the way I see this matchup—and leads me to these three best bets
3 best bets for Louisville football fans ahead of vs Bowling Green matchup
3. Bowling Green Team Total OVER 13.5 (-102, FanDuel)
Through three games, Bowling Green has scored 26, 20, and 23 points. Sure, those numbers came against lesser opponents, but Louisville’s defense hasn’t exactly screamed “shut down” early on. The Cards are giving up 15.5 points per game so far, including 17 to Eastern Kentucky, an FCS team.
Jeff Brohm pulled starters at halftime against EKU, and while the JMU win required more effort, even that defense gave up 14 points to an offense that couldn’t throw the ball. Bowling Green is closer in talent to James Madison than EKU, and until Louisville proves they can keep their foot down for four quarters, I like the Falcons to sneak in a couple of scores.
Bowling Green will clear 13.5 points and make this interesting longer than Cards fans want.
2. Total Over 52.5 (-115, FanDuel)
The over burned fans against JMU, but Louisville overs have been one of the most reliable trends over the last two years—14-6 in their last 20 games and 10-5 in their last 15 Saturday kickoffs.
The Cards should come out sharper after a two-week break, and I expect Miller Moss and company to find the end zone more consistently. If Louisville hangs 35–42 points like I think they can, then Bowling Green doesn’t need to do much to push the game total over.
Louisville fans might be stubborn if they bet the over again, but they are betting on fireworks Saturday afternoon.
1. Bowling Green +26.5 (-102, FanDuel)
This one’s all about the numbers. Louisville is 0-2 ATS this year as a home favorite, and just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as the chalk. Against MAC teams specifically, they’re only 2-4 ATS in their last six tries.
Meanwhile, Bowling Green has been an underdog bettor’s best friend. Since last season, the Falcons are 4-0 ATS as a road dog, covering by an average of 16.8 points per game. They were +21.5 at Cincinnati earlier this year and lost 34-20—another cover.
Louisville may win comfortably, but history says Bowling Green hangs around long enough to keep it under the number.