After starting this segment 0-3 against James Madison, the Bowling Green game went almost exactly as predicted, and a 3-0 bounce back evened things up at 3-3 on the year. With ACC play now underway, there’s more meaningful data to work with, and this week brings a tricky road test. Louisville football travels to Pittsburgh on Saturday for a noon kickoff on ESPN2.
FanDuel has Louisville as a 4.5-point favorite with the total sitting at 57.5. While the Cards are 0-3 ATS so far, this line reflects their upside rather than past performance. Pitt, meanwhile, boasts an experienced quarterback in Eli Holstein and already has a Power Four test under its belt (a road loss at West Virginia). Both teams are looking to make noise in the ACC, and given Louisville’s 1-5 straight-up record in Pittsburgh since 2008, this game has the makings of a momentum swing for either side. With that in mind, here are three bets worth considering:
3 Best Bets for Louisville Football Fans Ahead of Week 5 at Pittsburgh
1. 1st Half Under 29.5 Points (-112, FanDuel)
This number feels a bit inflated given how both offenses like to operate. Despite Pitt’s reputation for explosiveness and Louisville’s Brohm-led scheme, conference openers often start tight, with defenses dictating the tone. Scoring 30 points in a first half would require both teams to find rhythm quickly—something neither has consistently shown against higher-level competition.
Louisville’s lone real test so far was James Madison, and the Dukes managed only seven first-half points. Pitt’s game against West Virginia played out almost identically, with the Mountaineers stuck at seven by halftime. With each team stepping into its first ACC clash, expect a more cautious approach early and value on the under.
2. Under 57.5 Total Points (-108, FanDuel)
This play mirrors the first-half under but with stronger historical backing. Despite both offenses averaging over 39 points per game this season, head-to-head meetings have leaned defensive. The under has hit in eight of the last 11 matchups and in five of Louisville’s last seven trips to Pittsburgh.
Brohm’s offense has been balanced to this point—89 rush attempts vs. 93 passes—a style that tends to shorten games. Unless Louisville’s backs break a few chunk plays or Pitt connects on multiple explosive shots, the pace favors a game that stays in the low-to-mid 20s for both sides. Last year’s meeting Louisville scored 37 points themselves, and even then an under of 57.5 would have cashed.
3. Eli Holstein Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-148, FanDuel)
Holstein has picked up right where he left off last season, when he threw 17 touchdowns in 9 games. Through three games this year, he’s already at 9 passing scores, making his career average at exactly two per contest. His ability to extend plays with his legs also creates red-zone opportunities through the air.
The contrast with Louisville is stark. Miller Moss has just 2 passing touchdowns this season, while the ground game has accounted for 8. Pitt, by comparison, sits at a 10:5 passing-to-rushing touchdown ratio, making Holstein the safer bet to find the end zone twice. If Pitt moves the ball effectively, it’s likely going to be through his arm.
Best Bet Recap:
1H Under 29.5 (-112)
Under 57.5 (-108)
Holstein Over 1.5 TDs (-148)