After yet another close game against Boston College — which now feels like an annual tradition — Louisville football sits at 6-1 on the season. They didn’t have their best performance last week, but a win is a win, and the Cards will certainly take it. Louisville still has everything in front of them in terms of season goals as they travel to Virginia Tech to face the 3-5 Hokies. The Cards enter as 11.5-point favorites with a total set at 54.5 for the 3:00 PM kickoff on The CW Network (FanDuel).
This segment was one Chris Bell yard away from going a perfect 3-0 for the second time this season. Though he finished with 49 instead of the 50 our parlay needed, going 2-1 is still a solid week. It also marks the second game in a row that two of the three best bets hit, bringing the season record to a modest 9-9 — but a strong 4-2 over the last two weeks.
Virginia Tech comes into the matchup 2-6 against the spread (ATS) and 4-4 on overs. Louisville, despite being very good straight up, has also struggled ATS this season at just 2-5. Overs are 4-3 in Louisville games. And believe it or not, this game being on The CW adds another little wrinkle to an already tricky game to handicap. With all of this in mind, here are the three best bets against Virginia Tech this week.
3 Best locks for Louisville football vs. Virginia Tech
1. Isaac Brown AND Keyjaun Brown Anytime TD (+200, FanDuel)
The Law Offices of Brown & Brown should feast on a Hokies rush defense that ranks 55th in the country, allowing 135 rushing yards per game. Even worse, VaTech ranks 120th in rushing touchdowns allowed with 17 already given up this year — only 10 FBS teams have allowed more, and Baylor is the only Power Four school worse in that category. The Hokies have surrendered at least one rushing touchdown in every game and have allowed touchdowns from two different running backs in three of their eight contests.
The Cards’ two-headed duo is coming off their best combined performance of the season. Isaac Brown rushed for over 200 yards and very easily could have scored twice, while Keyjaun Brown added 95 yards and found the end zone late in the fourth quarter. It’s only the second time this season both have scored in the same game, but they appear to be hitting their stride at the perfect time. Considering how often Tech gives up touchdowns to opposing backs, this is outstanding value.
2. Under 54.5 (-115, FanDuel)
ACC games on The CW have been unpredictable and low-scoring this season. In matchups between two ACC teams, the favorite is just 1-3 straight up and the over has also hit only once. There’s something about these 3 PM CW kickoffs that leads to weird, sluggish football.
Now, no one should make a bet solely based on four games played on one broadcast network — that would be nuts. But the numbers still matter. These teams are a combined 8-7 on overs, essentially a coin flip. The real appeal here is game flow. If Louisville takes control early, this feels like the type of game where Jeff Brohm leans heavily on the run game in the second half to chew clock, stay healthy, and get out of Blacksburg with a road win. A scenario like 24-7 deep into the second half would have this total in a comfortable under position.
3. Virginia Tech Over 20.5 Team Total
This one is rooted in a very simple trend: Louisville hasn’t held an ACC opponent under 21 points all season. Since the start of the 2024 campaign, ACC opponents have scored at least 21 points in eight of 11 games against the Cards. Even though Louisville’s defense often looks the part, the scoreboard tells a different story. In ACC play, the Cards are allowing 25.5 points per game.
Virginia Tech, meanwhile, is much better at home than their record shows. In two ACC home games, the Hokies are averaging 28.5 points per contest. They have playmakers similar to what Boston College featured, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Tech hit on a few chunk plays early or snag some late scores if the Cards have a lead. With all the numbers pointing in the same direction, this is a “don’t overthink it” situation — take over 20.5.