1. Kansas
The biggest threat to Louisville is the Kansas Jayhawks. The Cardinals fans should be worried about the Jayhawks after their official visit last month in August. The Cards were dominant favorites, but after Kinney met up with Bill Self and those Kansas Jayhawks, the race changed drastically.
Now, Tipton logged a prediction that Kansas is in the lead for Kinney and appears to be the new frontrunner, and it might be by a large margin. On3 Sports gives Kansas now a dominant 71 percent chance of earning his commitment, and Louisville just a 3.5 percent chance.
With Kinney's announcement just about two weeks away, the Cardinals need to make a move fast, and they need to skyrocket their chances as these two Adidas programs are battling it out for one of the top Adidas prospects in the 2026 cycle. Louisville and Kansas are neck-and-neck, but now that Kansas has the edge, Kelsey must work some magic and convince the Kentucky native to wear red and black in 2026-27.
Related: Top Pat Kelsey recruiting targeted scheduled for Blue Blood visit after naming finalists
For all the latest on Louisville basketball's offseason and recruiting, stay tuned.