As most fans enter the official start of the college football season and Week 1 this Saturday, Card fans will have to wait one more day to watch their team take the field. Louisville will take on last year’s CFP Semifinalist Ole Miss in Nashville Sunday night at 7:30 p.m. on ABC. The Cards enter their season opener as 6.5-point underdogs to the Rebels and have a tall task ahead of them to start a year with high expectations for Coach Brohm.
Besides the schedule being in Louisville’s favor, fans have plenty to be hopeful and excited about this season. With many of last year’s key players returning and a mix of new faces that came with plenty of hype, the roster may be the best one of the Brohm era. New quarterback Lincoln Kienholz has massive upside despite his lack of experience.
Sunday’s opener is perhaps the biggest test on Louisville’s schedule, which means this game could dictate how the rest of the season goes. Making a statement with a win, or even suffering a blowout loss, could be an early indicator of exactly what kind of season Cardinal fans are in for. In order to pull off this upset, Louisville cannot beat itself and will have to rely on its veteran players on both sides of the ball.
Here are three reasons Louisville can do exactly that and walk away with a victory against Ole Miss.
1. Run Game
Louisville’s most effective offensive weapon last season was its running back room. The Law Offices of Brown and Brown — Isaac Brown and Keyjaun Brown — both returned with their eyes set on becoming one of the best running back rooms in the entire country, let alone the ACC. If both are able to stay healthy for most of the season, there is no reason they can’t each hit 1,000 yards. Averaging 8.8 and 7.3 yards per carry, respectively, they are big-play makers who can flip a game by themselves with one big run.
Ole Miss was particularly susceptible to being hurt by the run game last season. The Rebels ranked 69th in the FBS, giving up 149 rushing yards per game a season ago. In a season where they made the CFP Final Four and had their defensive coordinator take over as head coach, you would think they were better on that side of the ball. Unfortunately for Ole Miss, the adjustments made by first-year head coach Pete Golding will be put to the test right away in Week 1.
Look for Brown, Brown, and maybe even QB Kienholz to make plays in the run game that affect the outcome of this game. If they can reach 200 total rushing yards as a team, it may be a safe bet that Louisville is hanging around and putting up a fight to pull off this upset.
2. Defense
Again, with Ole Miss making it to the semifinals a year ago and naming its defensive coordinator as head coach when Lane Kiffin suddenly left for LSU in the middle of a playoff run, one would assume that Ole Miss had a good defense. This was not necessarily the case. The Rebels ranked 69th against the run and 37th against the pass, which accounted for the 48th-ranked total defense in the FBS. The team was carried by a great offensive attack and did not win games on defense, but even so, the defense was not great by any metric.
Louisville, on the other hand, was forced to win games the old-fashioned way: run the ball effectively and play great defense. The Cardinals were ranked 23rd against the run last season and 24th against the pass. That put them at No. 16 in total defense last season, and with the added depth they brought in through the transfer portal, it may be even better this season. Louisville only gave up one 100-yard rusher all season, against Clemson’s Adam Randall, who had 105 yards, 46 of them coming on one play.
In this week’s season opener, it is unclear if Louisville’s offense can be effective on its own yet with so much inexperience at quarterback. Another question is whether Louisville’s defense can match its dominance from last season, especially against the run. However, if it can limit starting Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy to under 100 yards and force Trinidad Chambliss to beat them with his arm, that may be the recipe for success.
There may be a lot of questions entering this game, but if last year is any indication of what will take place on Sunday, Louisville’s defense may be the key to a victory.
3. Turnovers
What may be the key indicator in any football game, turnovers will probably play a huge role in this game as well. Louisville’s new quarterback will have to take care of the ball and not beat himself if the Cardinals want to stick around in this one. If Kienholz can have zero turnovers, it would be a big step toward gaining the confidence of Louisville fans all over.
The good news for him is that Ole Miss only had nine interceptions last season. Their defense simply did not intercept opposing quarterbacks very often last year, which could be a huge break for Kienholz if that trend continues. Of those nine interceptions a year ago, Ole Miss returned three players who totaled three interceptions between them.
Turning the ball over is every team’s goal, especially in close games, and Ole Miss only had 15 takeaways last season. Louisville wasn’t that much better at turning opponents over, recording only 20 takeaways, including 14 interceptions themselves.
With that being said, Louisville does not necessarily need to force turnovers to stick around in this game if it takes care of its own possessions. Winning or tying the turnover battle would be a huge success for the Cards and will probably be another indicator of who wins this matchup.
Look for Louisville to take care of the rock, lean on its rushing attack, and let its defense keep the Rebels in check. If the Cardinals can do those three things, they may have everything they need to pull off one of the biggest wins of the Brohm era.
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