1. Limit Penalties and Turnovers
Both Louisville and Miami have struggled with discipline this season. Out of 136 FBS teams, Louisville ranks 112th nationally with 7.4 penalties per game for 72.4 yards, while Miami sits just behind at 114th with 7.6 penalties for 62.8 yards. In a game where you’re a 13.5-point underdog, every edge matters. The Hurricanes’ tendency to commit penalties could be pivotal — if Louisville can clean up their own mistakes. Under Brohm, Louisville is 9–3 against Power 4 opponents when committing the same or fewer penalties than their opponent, but just 7–7 when flagged more.
Turnovers are equally crucial. Miami ranks 5th nationally in turnover margin (+6), with nine takeaways and only three giveaways. Louisville, meanwhile, sits 54th at +1. The Cardinals have created turnovers, but giving the ball away has been their bigger issue. Brohm’s track record makes the importance of this clear: against P4 teams, he’s 14–2 at Louisville when his team wins or ties the turnover battle — and just 2–8 when they lose it.
When the Cards have won both the turnover and penalty battles, they’re 3–0; when they’ve lost both, they’re 0–4. If Louisville can turn Miami’s aggression into mistakes while protecting the ball themselves, they’ll give themselves a real shot to stay in this one.