Now that Louisville basketball is no longer undefeated, things are about to get very real for the Cardinals. As the calendar turns to December, the games against sub-par opponents are mostly behind them. After suffering their first loss of the season to Arkansas last week, Card fans watched a huge bounce-back win last Saturday against Indiana. That type of resilience and fight is what could make this season’s team very different from last year’s.
Louisville now sits at 8–1 and is ranked No. 11 in the AP poll heading into a week off before facing Memphis at home on Saturday. Memphis has had a rough start to the season, sitting at 4–4, but their losses have come in close games against top-ranked Purdue, a solid Ole Miss squad, and others, before finally getting their first Power Conference win by beating Baylor last weekend. Louisville last played Memphis in 2017, and according to ESPN Analytics, the Cards have a 93.7% chance of winning this matchup.
3 crucial weaknesses Louisville basketball will exploit against Memphis
1. Difference in Three-Pointers Made
It’s no secret that Louisville likes to shoot from downtown. It’s even less of a secret that when they’re hot from behind the arc, they become extremely tough to beat. The problem for Memphis specifically is that they do not shoot threes nearly as often. This season, the Tigers are attempting just 22 threes per game and hitting only 32 percent of them, with 57 made threes through eight games. For context, Louisville MADE 20 three-pointers against NJIT two weeks ago.
Three-point attempts account for just under 55 percent of Louisville’s total field-goal attempts this season. Memphis shoots the three-pointer only 36 percent of the time. This stylistic difference directly leads to a +17-per-game differential in three-pointers between the two teams. They average roughly the same number of two-point makes per game, but with Louisville hitting twice as many threes as Memphis, it becomes a recipe for disaster if the Cards shoot to their average on Saturday. In a game where Memphis will likely be playing from behind, two-point attempts alone probably won’t be enough. Expect Louisville to shoot early and often from deep and dare Memphis to try to keep up.
2. Taking Advantage of Memphis’ Offensive Rating
According to KenPom, Memphis has the 66th-best Net Rating in the country. That’s respectable, but it’s largely carried by their defense, which ranks 42nd in defensive efficiency. Offensively, the Tigers have an efficiency rating of 111.8, meaning they score 111.8 points per 100 possessions—102nd out of 365 teams. Louisville, meanwhile, ranks fourth nationally in offensive efficiency at 125.3 points per 100 possessions.
The difference becomes even clearer when looking at raw points per game. Louisville ranks 10th in the country at 93.8 ppg. Memphis sits tied for 210th at just 76.0 ppg. This stark contrast is exactly what Louisville wants stylistically. By design, Louisville is built to simply outscore you, and when opponents can’t keep up with their offensive firepower, the Cards usually win. If Memphis can’t sustain efficient scoring throughout all forty minutes, Louisville can create separation in a hurry.
3. Getting to the Free-Throw Line
Another major difference in style is how often Louisville gets to the free-throw line compared to Memphis. This season, Memphis has made 125 of 178 attempts (70.2%). Louisville, on the other hand, is 182-for-236 (77.1%). That’s right—Louisville has made more free throws than Memphis has even attempted. And to make matters worse for the Tigers, the Cards shoot them at a significantly better percentage.
The good news for Memphis is that, despite Louisville’s ability to draw fouls, they shouldn’t struggle too much with foul trouble because of how deep their rotation is. The Tigers have 12 players who log at least 10 minutes per game, plus another just under that mark. That level of depth is rare and could help them manage the talent gap that exists between these two teams. Still, if Louisville gets to the line early and forces Memphis to defend aggressively for long stretches, the Cards will have a major advantage.