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3 eye-popping stats that prove Louisville will pull off the upset over Michigan State

Here are three stats that should make Louisville basketball fans feel confident for tomorrow's showdown with Michigan State.
Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
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3. Michigan State’s lack of depth

Many would assume that, with Brown out, Louisville would be at a depth disadvantage. However, the opposite may actually be true. Brown’s absence has forced the Cardinals to expand their rotation, giving players like Adrian Wooley, Kobe Rodgers, and Sananda Fru more meaningful minutes down the stretch.

That adjustment has created greater flexibility for Pat Kelsey. Against USF, Louisville had eight players log at least 10 minutes, with seven of them playing 20 or more. That kind of distribution not only keeps players fresh but also builds trust across the rotation in high-pressure moments.

Michigan State, on the other hand, has tightened its rotation late in the season. In each of their last three games, they’ve essentially relied on a six-man group. In their Big Ten Tournament loss to UCLA, six players logged over 20 minutes, with starters all playing at least 26. In their regular-season finale, all five starters played 29+ minutes, while only one bench player saw more than nine minutes.

At this stage of the season, coaches lean on their most trusted players—but that comes at a cost. With this being the second game in three days, a short rotation could become a real issue. If the Spartans stick with a limited bench, they could wear down trying to keep pace with Louisville’s tempo.

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