1. Turnover battle
The turnover margin could ultimately decide this matchup. While Mikel Brown Jr. has led Louisville with 3.1 turnovers per game this season, his absence doesn’t automatically solve the issue.
That was evident against South Florida, where Louisville committed 22 turnovers—its highest total of the season. Ryan Conwell accounted for six of them, highlighting how ball security remains a concern even without Brown in the lineup. On the year, the Cards average just under 12 turnovers per game, a number that includes Brown’s contributions.
The encouraging news is that Michigan State does not excel at forcing turnovers. The Spartans rank 306th nationally in turnovers created and 328th in steals, averaging just 5 per game. Not only do they struggle to generate takeaways, but they also take mediocre care of the ball themselves, committing 11.5 turnovers per game—ranking 185th in the country.
That combination plays directly into Louisville’s hands. If the Cardinals can simply protect the ball and stay near their season average, they should have a clear edge in the turnover battle. And in a game that figures to be tight, that advantage could be the difference.