3. Take advantage of Caleb Wilson’s absence
Without Wilson, UNC is missing its top scorer and rebounder. His 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds per game put him near the top of the ACC leaderboard and make him the focal point of an offense that ranks 13th nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio while averaging 80.7 points per game.
However, UNC welcomed back its second-leading scorer last game in junior center Henri Veesaar. Averaging 16.5 points and 8.8 rebounds per game, he and Wilson are the only ACC players ranked in the top 10 in scoring, rebounding, field goal percentage, blocks and double-doubles. Combined, they have 24 double-doubles this season. With Louisville lacking a consistent interior defensive presence, Veesaar is likely to produce.
That makes senior guard Seth Trimble the true X-factor. Averaging 13.3 points per game in 18 appearances, he could swing this game either way. UNC went 8-1 in the nine games Trimble missed earlier this season, including a win over Kentucky, though many of those games came against mid-major competition. Since his return, the Tar Heels have dropped five contests — and nearly six if not for his clutch three-pointer at the buzzer against Duke.
In UNC’s last two losses, Trimble has totaled just eight points. He scored four against Miami (0-5 from the field) and four against NC State (1-9 shooting). That’s the kind of output Louisville needs. If the Cards can hold Trimble under 10 points and keep everyone else near their averages, they’ll put themselves in a strong position to outscore UNC.