2. Defense, defense, defense
Louisville has won seven of its last nine games since Mikel Brown Jr. returned from injury. While it’s easy to credit the offensive boost Brown provides, the real difference has been on the defensive end. In those seven wins, the Cards have allowed just 72.5 points per game. In their two losses, that number jumps to 89 points per game — a 17-point swing. That defensive consistency will determine how Louisville finishes the season.
The same trend applies to UNC. The Tar Heels hold opponents to 41.3% shooting on the year. In wins, they average 83.2 points while allowing just 66.7. In their six losses, they score only 72.2 points and surrender 84.5 points.
If Louisville wants to win on the road, holding UNC under 80 points feels essential while producing something close to its offensive average.